ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT

Luigi Pascali

Obiettivi formativi

This course examines the determinants of economic growth and development and the sources of persistent differences in living standards across countries and regions. Particular attention is devoted to the roles of geography, institutions, culture, and human capital in shaping long-run economic performance and development trajectories. Drawing on recent contributions from the economics literature and a range of historical and contemporary case studies, the course explores competing theories and empirical evidence on the fundamental causes of economic prosperity and underdevelopment. Students will critically engage with current debates on the interactions among economic, political, social, and cultural factors in the development process.

Risultati di apprendimento attesi

By the end of the course, students will be able to evaluate alternative explanations for cross-country differences in economic performance, interpret empirical evidence in the development and growth literature, and apply economic reasoning to the analysis of contemporary development challenges.

Contenuti Del Corso

The course is organized into seven thematic modules that examine the fundamental determinants of economic growth and development from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. Module A. Models of Economic Growth * The stylized facts of economic growth * The Solow growth model * Long-run growth and convergence Module B. The Role of Geography * Geography and comparative development * Climate, natural endowments, and economic performance * Trade, location, and spatial inequality Module C. The Role of Institutions * Institutions and long-run economic development * Colonial origins and institutional persistence * Trade and institutional change * The emergence of representative government * The origins of states and political hierarchy Module D. The Role of Culture * Culture versus institutions in explaining development * The historical origins of cultural traits * Trust, social norms, and economic performance * Culture, cooperation, and ethnic conflict Module E. The Role of Human Capital * Education and economic development * Religion, literacy, and human capital accumulation * Innovation, knowledge diffusion, and technological change * Human capital and industrialization Module F. The Role of Demography * Population dynamics and the transition from stagnation to growth * Fertility decline and economic development * Aging populations, automation, and long-run growth Module G. Inequality and Growth * The relationship between inequality and economic development * Credit constraints and poverty traps * The effects of income distribution on long-run growth Throughout the course, students will engage with seminal and frontier research papers in economics, critically evaluating competing explanations for cross-country differences in economic performance and development outcomes.

Testi Di Riferimento

Although there are no required textbooks for this course, students are strongly encouraged to consult the following influential works, which provide valuable background and complementary perspectives on the themes covered in the course: * Diamond, J. (1997), Guns, Germs, and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies. * Acemoglu, D. and Robinson, J. A. (2012), Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty. * Galor, O. (2022), The Journey of Humanity: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality. These books offer accessible introductions to some of the central debates on the historical and institutional determinants of economic development and long-run prosperity.

Metodologie Didattiche

The course combines lectures with discussion-based sessions centered on academic research articles. A substantial part of the course is devoted to the analysis and critical discussion of papers at the research frontier in the fields of economic growth and development. Through guided reading and in-class debate, students will examine how economists formulate research questions, identify causal relationships, and evaluate empirical evidence.

Modalità di verifica dell'apprendimento

The final grade will depend on: -Class presentation and active participation in seminar classes (25%) -Final exam (75%)

Criteri per l’assegnazione dell’elaborato finale

NA

Settimana 1

A. MODELS OF ECONOMIC GROWTH Note: Module A will be discussed in the TA sessions. This part will review the concepts you have covered in your previous macro course (“Macroeconomics”). Specifically, in the TA sessions, you will revisit Chapters 10 to 13 from the textbook Blanchard, Giavazzi, Ameghini (2023), Macroeconomics: A European Perspective. The facts of growth Blanchard, Giavazzi, Ameghini (2023). Chpt 10 The Solow model Blanchard, Giavazzi, Ameghini (2023). Chpts 11, 12 and 13. B. THE ROLE OF GEOGRAPHY Geography and Development *Sachs, Jeffrey, “Institutions Matter, But Not for Everything” (2003) http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2003/06/pdf/sachs.pdf *Melissa Dell, Ben Jones and Ben Olken (2009), “Temperature and Income”. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings. *Henderson, Squires, Storeygard, and Weil. The Global Spatial Distribution of Economic Activity: Nature, History, and the Role of Trade. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 133. *Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2002), “The Reversal of Fortune”. Quarterly Journal of Economics 117.

Settimana 2

C. THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONS Institutions and long-run development *Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson and James Robinson (2001). “The Colonial Origins of Comparative Economic Development: An Empirical Investigation”, American Economic Review 91. *Melissa Dell (2010). “The persistent effects of Peru’s mining Mita”, Econometrica 78. *Acemoglu and Johnson (2005). Unbundling Institutions. Journal of Political Economy 113. International trade and institutional change * Pascali (2017) The Wind of Change: Maritime Technology, Trade and Economic Development. American Economic Review 107(9), 2821-54 # Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2005). The rise of Europe: Atlantic trade, institutional change, and economic growth. The American Economic Review 95. # Puga and Trefler (2014) International Trade and Institutional Change: Medieval Venice’s Response to Globalization. Quarterly Journal of Economics

Settimana 3

The role of liberal democracies *Acemoglu, Cantoni Johnson and Robinson (2011). The Consequences of Radical Reform: The French Revolution. American Economic Review. *Pascali, L., Becker, S. O., Ferrara, A., & Melander, E. (forthcoming). Wars, Taxation and Representation: Evidence from Five Centuries of German History, the Journal of European Economic Association. The origins of the state *Diamond, Jared, “Guns, Germs and Steel: A short history of everybody for the last 13,000 years”, (1998), Vintage. *Mayshar, Moav, and Pascali (2022). Cereals, Appropriability and Hierarchy. Journal of Political Economy 130. *Sanchez de la Sierra (2020). On the Origins of States: Stationary Bandits and Taxation in Eastern Congo”. Journal of Political Economy. *Flückiger, M., Larch, M., Ludwig, M., & Pascali, L. (2024). The Dawn of Civilization: Metal Trade and the Rise of Hierarchy. Mimeo.

Settimana 4

D. THE ROLE OF CULTURE What matters for growth? Culture or institutions? * Michalapoulous, Stelios and Elias Pappaioannou (2013), “National Institutions and Sub National Development in Africa”, Quarterly Journal of Economics. * Guiso, Sapienza, Zingales (2016). “Long Term Persistence”. Journal of European Economic Association 14(6): 1401-1436 *Becker, Boeckh, Hainz and Woessmann (2016) The empire is dead, long live the empire! Long‐run persistence of trust and corruption in the bureaucracy. Economic Journal, 126 (590)

Settimana 5

The origins of some cultural traits *Henrich, J. The weirdest people in the world. *Clark, G. A Farewell to Alms: a brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press * Nunn (2008). The long-term effects of Africa’s slave trade. Quarterly Journal of Economics 123(1). # Alesina, Giuliano, Nunn (2013). On the origins of gender roles: women and the plough. Quarterly Journal of Economics 128(1). #Ashraf and Galor (2013), “The Out of Africa Hypothesis, Human Genetic Diversity, and Comparative Economic Development, American Economic Review 103. # Ozak and Galor (2017) “The agricultural origins of time preference”, American Economic Review. # Buggle and Durante (2020) “Climate risk, Cooperation and the Co-Evolution of Culture and Institutions”. The Economic Journal 131

Settimana 6

Ethnic conflicts * Miguel, Satyanath and Sergenti (2004) Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: an Instrumental Variable. Journal of Political Economy 112. * Eleonora Guarnieri (2025) Cultural Distance and Ethnic Civil Conflict, American Economic Review *Jha (2014). Unfinished business: historic complementarities, political competition and ethnic violence in Gujarat. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. *Jha (2013). Trade, institutions and ethnic tolerance: evidence from South Asia. American Political Science Review 107. *Becker, S. O., & Pascali, L. (2019). Religion, division of labor, and conflict: Anti-Semitism in Germany over 600 years. American Economic Review, 109(5), 1764-1804.

Settimana 7

E. THE ROLE OF HUMAN CAPITAL *Glaeser, La Porta, Lopez-de-Silanes. Do institutions cause growth? Journal of Economic Growth 9. * Becker, Sascha and L. Woesmann (2009), “Was Weber Wrong? A Human Capital Interpretation of Protestant Economic History”, Quarterly Journal of Economics. *Valencia, F. 2016. The Mission: Economic Persistence, Human Capital Transmission and Culture in South America, The Quarterly Journal 134. *Squicciarini and Voigtländer 2015 Human Capital and Industrialization: Evidence from the Age of Enlightenment Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Settimana 8

*Squicciarini, M. P. (2020). Devotion and Development: Religiosity, Education, and Economic Progress in 19th-Century France. American Economic Review 110(11): 3454-3491. * Jeremiah Dittmar & Skipper Seabold, 2019. New media and competition: printing and Europe's transformation after Gutenberg. # Hornung 2014 Immigration and the diffusion of technology: the Huguenot diaspora in Prussia. American Economic Review # Dittmar 2011 Information Technology and Economic Change: The Impact of the Printing Press. Quarterly Journal of Economics. # Cantoni and Yuchtman 2014 Medieval Universities, Legal Institutions, and the Commercial Revolution Quarterly Journal of Economics.

Settimana 9

F. THE ROLE OF DEMOGRAPHY The fertility transition: from stagnation to growth *Ashraf and Galor (2011). Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch. The American Economic Review 101. #Spolaore and Wacziarg (2022). Fertility and Modernity. The Economic Journal 132.

Settimana 10

The challenges of an aging society *Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2017). Secular stagnation? The effect of aging on economic growth in the age of automation. American Economic Review, 107(5), 174-179. * Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2022). Demographics and Automation. Review of Economic Studies, 89, 1-44.

Settimana 11

G. INEQUALITY AND GROWTH *Galor and Zeira (1993), “Income Distribution and Macroeconomics” Review of Economic Studies 60. Ghatak and Jiang (2002), “A simple model of inequality, occupational choice and development 69. *Clarke, G. (1995), “More evidence on income distribution and growth” Journal of Development Economics 47. *Forbes (2000), “A Reassessment of the Relationship between Inequality and Growth” American Economic Review. *McKenzie, D. and Woodruff, C. (2006). “Do entry costs provide an empirical basis for poverty traps? Evidence from microenterprises. Economic Development and Cultural Change.

Settimana 12

Review week