MACRO TRENDS & FORECAST

The Macrotrends & Forecast Certificate aims to develop the competencies required to read, interpret and anticipate major global transformations, translating them into impact assessments and strategic choices for public and private organisations. The program analyses the main strategic discontinuities under way – geopolitical, economic, energy-related and technological – and their interdependencies, with particular attention to their implications for security, critical infrastructure, industrial supply chains and competitiveness. In particular, the Certificate aims to develop: • the ability to identify and analyse megatrends, drivers of change, weak signals and emerging risks; • an understanding of geopolitical competition, hybrid threats and the transformation of the security and industrial landscape, including civil-to-defence transition and the role of dual-use technologies; • knowledge of the dynamics of the energy transition, energy security and dependencies related to critical raw materials; • an understanding of artificial intelligence and emerging technologies as drivers of economic and industrial disruption; • command of strategic foresight and scenario planning tools; • critical thinking, synthesis and decision-making skills under uncertainty (Life Skills), practised through case analysis and scenario building. At the end of the program, students will have acquired competencies useful for connecting different macro trends, assessing their impacts and developing well-grounded strategic options and recommendations.

There are no binding prerequisites. To benefit fully from the planned activities, a basic knowledge of economics, international relations and business strategy is useful, as well as an interest in current geopolitical, energy and technological affairs. A good command of English is recomended, as the main reference materials are in English.

Upon completion of the Certificate, students will be able to: • identify and interpret global megatrends, structural discontinuities and weak signals; • analyse the interdependencies between geopolitical, economic, societal, energy and technological drivers; • assess the impact of geopolitical tensions, the energy transition and emerging technologies on infrastructure, industries and security; • apply horizon scanning techniques and build alternative future scenarios; • stress-test organisations and strategies against possible future developments; • translate scenarios into risks, opportunities, strategic options and recommendations. The competencies developed are certified through three Digital Badges: • Geopolitical Trends Analysis: understanding what is changing; • Security Impact Analysis: assessing the impact on infrastructure, industries and security; • Strategic Decision-Making: turning analysis into strategic choices. The Certificate is particularly relevant for professional roles in strategic analysis, risk management, consulting and institutional affairs. The competencies developed are applicable to roles such as strategy analyst, geopolitical and risk analyst and foresight analyst in companies, public institutions, international organisations, consulting firms and research centres.

The Certificate addresses the main global macro trends and strategic discontinuities that are reshaping the competitive landscape, connecting geopolitical, security, energy and technology analysis with strategic foresight and decision-making tools under uncertainty. In particular, the program explores: • global megatrends, structural shifts, geopolitical, economic and societal drivers, weak signals and emerging risks; • geopolitical competition, hybrid threats, critical infrastructure security and resilience; • civil-to-defence industrial transformation, dual-use technologies, capabilities and supply chains; • the evolving global energy landscape, energy security, transition and strategic autonomy; • critical raw materials, supply-chain dependencies and implications for competitiveness, resilience and defence; • artificial intelligence and emerging technologies as drivers of economic and industrial disruption; • strategic foresight and scenario planning: horizon scanning, building alternative scenarios and stress-testing; • strategic decision-making under uncertainty: from scenarios to risks, opportunities and recommendations.

Essential reference materials include the slides and teaching materials prepared by the instructor for each session and the case studies discussed in class. Supplementary materials include, in their most recent edition: • World Economic Forum – Global Risks Report; • European Commission – Strategic Foresight Report; • International Energy Agency – World Energy Outlook; • OECD – Strategic Foresight Toolkit. Any additional readings will be indicated by the instructor during the sessions.

The Certificate adopts an active teaching approach, aimed at developing analytical and decision-making skills applicable to real-world contexts. The teaching methods adopted include: • interactive lectures on the analysis of macro trends and strategic discontinuities, enriched with examples drawn from current geopolitical, energy and technological affairs; • case discussions on geopolitical, security, energy and technology scenarios, aimed at developing the ability to assess their impact on infrastructure, industries and security; • strategic foresight and scenario planning exercises, applying horizon scanning techniques, building alternative scenarios and stress-testing strategies; • collaborative learning through class discussion on translating scenarios into strategic options and recommendations.

The Certificate is assessed on a pass/fail basis. Assessment will be based on a final in-class exam, consisting of the resolution of a case study, to be completed without the use of PCs, phones or other electronic devices. The exam requires students to analyse the macro trends relevant to the case, assess their impact and formulate strategic options and recommendations. Assessment will take into account the ability to analyse and connect trends, the quality of the impact assessment and the soundness of the recommendations. Requirement for obtaining the Certificate: regular attendance of at least 70% of the learning activities and successful completion of the final assessment. For "non-compliant" students and students exempt from the attendance requirement, learning outcomes will be assessed through an oral examination, defined by the instructor in accordance with the Certificate content, learning objectives, and expected learning outcomes. For this purpose, the examination for "non-compliant" students and students exempt from the attendance requirement may include, at the instructor's discretion, questions on course content, discussion of cases or practical scenarios, analysis and discussion of materials, presentation and discussion of individual assignments, or any other assessment methods deemed appropriate to verify the full achievement of the expected learning outcomes. The Digital Badge will only be awarded to students who meet the minimum 70% attendance requirement. Therefore, students who, for any reason, including exemption from the attendance requirement, do not meet this threshold will not be eligible to receive the Digital Badge, even if they successfully pass the final examination.

Not applicable