ANALYTIC AND FORESIGHT TECHNIQUES FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

The course will enable students to gain conceptual and practical skills that enable them to pursue a career in those sectors where analyzing global politics is essential. After completing the course, students will be able to: have a better understanding of how to analyze current and future scenarios in global politics.

International Relations

After the course students will have a structured toolkit to allow them to analytically approach global politics and international relations

Reducing uncertainty of the current international system is essential for both governmental and nongovernmental actors. The course develops a learning path focused on understanding advanced concepts of international relations and on developing analytical skills to understand how global politics unfolds. The course starts with the study of advanced IR theories trying to understand what type of lenses they produce to look at global politics. Second, it introduces future studies as a theoretical base to introduce analytic and foresight techniques. Third, it provides methodological tools to operationalize the acquired knowledge. Finally, it addresses the issue of effective communication as the last step of any analytical process. The course is therefore structured into four interconnected modules: 1. Module 1: Theoretical Foundations: a. Advanced IR and future studies theories. b. Global Risks and Dynamics. c. AI tools for analysis 2. Module 2: Introduction to Foresight and Intelligence Studies: a. Intelligence studies: different types and history of intelligence systems b. How intelligence works, the intelligence cycle and intelligence sources (e.g., HUMINT, SIGINT), and ethical considerations. c. Analytical pitfalls (e.g., cognitive biases) in intelligence work. 3. Module 3: Analytic Techniques: a. Structured Analytic Techniques: hypothesis generation, contrarian methods (e.g., Devil’s Advocacy), early warning indicators. b. Scenario analysis: crafting plausible future scenarios for strategic planning. c. Wargaming as a tool for simulating geopolitical crises. 4. Module 4: Practical Applications: a. Group activities simulating real-world intelligence tasks. b. Presentation of findings using professional communication standards. c. Final scenario report integrating foresight methodologies.

Introduction to the course: a. Wikinson, P. (2007). International Relations: A Very Short Introduction. Oxford University Press. b. Fingar, T. (2011). Reducing uncertainty: Intelligence analysis and national security. Stanford University Press. c. Omand, D. (2015). Securing the state. Oxford University Press. Textbooks a. Valeriani, M. Intelligence Analysis for Global Politics Concepts and Techniques to Analyze an Uncertain World. Routledge b. CIA (2009). A Tradecraft Primer: Structured analytic techniques for improving intelligence analysis. CIA Center for the study of intelligence. c. Pherson, R. H., & Heuer Jr, R. J. (2019). Structured analytic techniques for intelligence analysis. Cq Press. (selected techniques) Book Chapters a. Heuer, R. J. (1999). Psychology of intelligence analysis. Center for the Study of Intelligence. (Part I & II) b. McKellar, R. (2017). A short guide to political risk. Routledge. (Chapter 1 to 4) c. Gidley, J. M. (2017). The future: A very short introduction. Oxford University Press. d. Mearsheimer, J. J., & Rosato, S. (2023). How states think: the rationality of foreign policy. Yale University Press. (Chapter 1 to 3) Papers a. Cornish, E. (2004). Futuring: The exploration of the future. World Future Society. b. Barnett, M., & Duvall, R. (2005). Power in international politics. International organization, 59(1), 39-75. c. Ikenberry, G. J. (2018). The end of liberal international order? International Affairs, 94(1), 7-23. d. Jones, R. J. (2013). Globalisation and interdependence in the international political economy. e. Schechter, B., Schneider, J., & Shaffer, R. (2021). Wargaming as a methodology: the international crisis wargame and experimental wargaming. Simulation & Gaming, 52(4), 513-526. Additional Papers and Readings are provided weekly during the course.

Lectures: Foundational concepts delivered through interactive teaching. Lab Discussions: Analysis of real-world scenarios to bridge theory with practice. Wargaming: Collaborative exercises simulating intelligence analysis tasks. Labs and simulations: Hands-on sessions for applying analytic techniques (e.g., wargaming). Guest Lectures: Insights from practitioners in diplomacy, intelligence, or foresight.

1. Participation (10%) - Active engagement in discussions and activities. 2. Scenario Exercise (10%) 3. Wargame (10%) 4. Written (scenario analysis – 35%) and oral (discussion – 35%) exam.

Interest in the discipline, active participation during the course, research proposal to be discussed with the Professor.