ECONOMETRIC THEORY

Paolo Santucci De Magistris

Instructional goals

The purpose of the course is to provide the necessary tools for a thorough understanding of the theory of econometrics. The course goals are 1) to be able to perform estimation and testing in linear regression models, and to be comfortable with asymptotic theory for linear models, 2) to be able to implement basic cross-section and time-series methods as needed for an advanced quantitative analyses.

Prerequisites

An econometric class similar to Applied Statistics and Econometrics + Matrix Algebra. Roughly corresponding to Appendices A-D of the Greene's book (see below)

Intended learning outcomes

Knowledge and understanding: The course will focus on the main econometric tools to perform quantitative analyses of economic data. This course provides analytical resources that will enable students to autonomously investigate the empirical validity of economic theory and to predict economic data. Applying knowledge and understanding: The students will be able to: • Carry out univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses • Determine the possible presence of causal relationships between economic variables • Adopt the most common estimation methods: linear projections, maximum likelihood, method of moments. Making judgements: We expect students to be able to set up and estimate econometric models and to interpret the outcomes in a sensible way. Students are asked to use the software MATLAB to gain insights on the econometric methodologies and their implementation. Learning skills: This course will contribute to empower learners giving them the theoretical, econometric and programming tools to autonomously study economic and financial data and test economic theories.

Course Contents

Some of the topics covered are: statistic foundations, single-equation linear model, and assumptions of the OLS estimator. Asymptotic properties of OLS and ML estimators. Testing (Likelihood-ratio, Wald, Lagrange Multipliers). Heteroskedasticity. Generalized least square estimator. Systems of equations. Measurement Error. Simultaneous equations model. Omitted variables. Instrumental variables estimation. Models for Panel Data. Generalized Method of Moments. Time Series modeling: univariate and multivariate

Reference Books

Greene, William, Econometric Analysis, Prentice Hall

Teaching Methods

Lectures and practice sections. The practice sessions are designed to cover more deeply the subjects introduced in class. The numerical/statistical software MATLAB will be extensively used in these sessions.

Assessment Method

Final written exam : theory questions + exercise in MATLAB

Thesis assignment criteria

None

Does the syllabus cover sustainability topics?

yes, in some empirical examples on gender gap.

Week 1 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

The linear regression model

Week 2 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

A modicum of asymptotic theory for econometricians

Week 3 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

The Maximum likelihood estimator. Consistency and Asymptotic Normality.

Week 4 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Linear model: triad of tests (LM, LR, and Wald)

Week 5 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Heteroskedasticity and GLS estimator. White test and robust covariance matrix estimator

Week 6 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Systems of Equations

Week 7 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Endogeneity: causes and solutions (instrumental variables)

Week 8 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

The generalized method of moments

Week 9 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Models for panel data

Week 10 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

introduction to time series analysis. Basic concepts: stationarity, ergodicity and the Wold representation of stochastic processes

Week 11 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

ARMA models

Week 12 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Modeling non-stationary processes. Testing for unit roots