ITALIAN DEMOGRAPHY AND SOCIETY

Maria Rita Testa

Instructional goals

The course aims to: - provide students with knowledge of the main basic concepts of demography and the quantitative tools used to analyse demographic phenomena; - examine the evolution of the Italian population, with particular attention to territorial differences and changes over time; - analyse the interrelationships between demographic, economic, and social changes, with particular attention to the mechanisms underlying their evolution.

Prerequisites

Students are expected to have a basic knowledge of statistics and a general familiarity with the main concepts and issues related to social and economic change. No specific prior knowledge of demography is required.

Intended learning outcomes

Knowledge and Understanding By the end of the course, students will have acquired: knowledge of the main concepts, methods, measures, and theoretical and analytical tools of demography; knowledge of the main stages of demographic development in Italy, as well as the demographic processes and mechanisms underlying its evolution; an understanding of the relationships between demographic dynamics and social, economic, and cultural changes in Italy, and in a comparative perspective. knowledge of the main sources of demographic data and of how statistical information can be used to analyse population phenomena. Application of Knowledge and Understanding By the end of the course, students will be able to: apply demographic concepts, methods, and indicators to the analysis and interpretation of major population phenomena; read, interpret, and discuss demographic data, identifying major trends and relationships between demographic dynamics and social, economic, and cultural transformations; identify, retrieve, and appropriately use the main official sources of demographic data; read, interpret, and critically discuss scientific articles and research reports on demographic issues; critically interpret and assess documents and reports on population policies, relating them to the available empirical evidence; formulate and develop a research project on a demographic topic, identifying a research question, appropriate data sources, and suitable methodologies. Making Judgements By the end of the course, students will be able to: - integrate the knowledge acquired in order to analyse and interpret complex demographic phenomena; - critically assess data, sources, and research findings, recognising their strengths and limitations for the interpretation of demographic phenomena; - critically compare different theoretical interpretations and empirical evidence concerning major demographic issues; - formulate independent and well-grounded judgements on demographic phenomena and issues, distinguishing empirical evidence from its interpretation; - critically assess the adequacy of policy responses to major demographic challenges, taking into account empirical evidence, the socioeconomic context, and different interpretative perspectives. Communication Skills By the end of the course, students will be able to: - communicate the knowledge acquired in an effective, clear, and rigorous manner, appropriately organising and synthesising information; - present and discuss the results of demographic analyses and research in a clear and critically argued manner; - use the language and terminology specific to the discipline in both written and oral communication. Learning Skills By the end of the course, students will be able to: independently explore demographic topics and issues through the consultation of books, scientific articles, research reports, and specialised statistical sources; critically compare different interpretations and perspectives on demographic issues, making appropriate use of the scientific literature; conduct research by collecting, organising, and critically analysing data and information from different sources; produce scientific reports and written contributions, organising their work independently and meeting assigned deadlines; organise and manage individual and group work, developing skills in collaboration, time management, responsibility, and adapting to new problems and situations.

Course Contents

The course introduces the main concepts, methods, and tools of demography and examines the evolution of the Italian population from a historical and comparative European perspective. Particular attention will be paid to the main demographic phenomena—including fertility, mortality, migration, population structure, and population ageing—and to their interrelationships with social, economic, and cultural changes in Italian society. The course will also address transformations in family structures, migration dynamics, demographic inequalities, and major population issues and policies.

Reference Books

Required Readings for All Students Blangiardo, G. (2025). Elementi di demografia. Il Mulino. New edition. Articles and additional materials covered during the course, available on the course page on the myLuiss platform.

Teaching Methods

Teaching and Learning Methods The course combines the following teaching and learning methods: - lectures, introducing key concepts and the main theoretical approaches; - data analysis, with particular attention to Italian demographic indicators; - case studies, focusing on concrete public policies; - seminars, dedicated to comparing different interpretations and perspectives; - policy workshops, in which students will move from demographic diagnosis to the formulation of public policy interventions; - student presentations. A significant part of the course will therefore focus on developing students’ ability to use demography as a tool for analysing public policies, rather than merely as a descriptive discipline.

Assessment Method

Assessment Methods For students who regularly attend the course, assessment will be based on: 1. Group project work, accounting for 15% of the final grade; 2. Group project presentation, accounting for 15% of the final grade; 3. Individual oral examination, accounting for 70% of the final grade. Preparation for the oral examination will be based on the textbook (Blangiardo) and the material presented in class during the course. For attending students, the final grade will be calculated as the weighted average of the above components. For non-attending students, assessment will be based on: 1. Written examination, accounting for 30% of the final grade. The examination will last three hours. Students may consult the textbook and the course teaching materials. The topic will be assigned by the instructor on the day of the examination; 2. Oral examination, accounting for 70% of the final grade. To pass the examination, students are expected to prepare the entire course syllabus and the required textbook (Blangiardo). Students who are unable to attend classes regularly are strongly encouraged to contact the instructor at the beginning of the course. Students who do not regularly attend classes will not be eligible to take part in any in-class or continuous assessment activities.

Thesis assignment criteria

Interest in the subject. Quality of the research proposal. Grade obtained in the examination.

Week 1

Demography, Society and Government - What is demography? - Population and political power - Demography as a public policy issue Seminar Questions When does a demographic change become a political issue? Does demography shape public policies, or can public policies shape demographic change?

Week 2

Demographic Tools - Population censuses and population registers - Rates, ratios, and probabilities - Dependency ratios and age structure Workshop Reading and interpretation of a set of demographic indicators for Italy.

Week 3

The Italian Demographic Transition - Declining mortality - Fertility decline - Urbanisation and industrialization Case Study 1950–2025: How has the age structure of the Italian population changed? Discussion To what extent are Italy’s current demographic characteristics the result of long-term processes?

Week 4

Fertility, Family and Generations - Total fertility and age-specific fertility - Age at motherhood - Marriage, cohabitation, and new family forms Generations and life courses - The gap between reproductive intentions and actual behaviour Seminar Question Is low fertility a demographic, economic, cultural, or institutional issue?

Week 5

Ageing, Longevity and an Ageing Society - Increasing life expectancy - Demographic dependency - Inequalities in longevity Seminar Case Study Who takes care of an ageing population?

Week 6

International Migration and Citizenship - Italy from a country of emigration to a country of immigration: the evolution of migration flows - New migration: young Italians on the move - Migration and the labour market Debate Can immigration offset Italy’s demographic decline?

Week 7

Internal Mobility, Depopulation and Territorial Inequalities - Internal migration from South to North in Italy - Depopulation of inner areas - Urbanisation and metropolitan concentration - Youth mobility and the outmigration Exercise Comparative analysis of two Italian areas with divergent demographic trajectories.

Week 8

Demography, Labour and the Economy - Working-age population - Ageing of the labour force - Retirement of large cohorts - Automation and technological adaptation Policy Question Can a country with a declining population continue to achieve economic growth? Different strategies will be compared, including raising the retirement age, increasing female employment, immigration, and enhancing productivity through technology.

Week 9

Demography and the Welfare State - Intergenerational transfers - The intergenerational contract - Family-based and public welfare Discussion Who pays for and who benefits from welfare in an ageing society?

Week 10

Demography, Representation and Politics - Ageing of the electorate - Generations and political behaviour - Electoral demography Seminar Question Does an ageing society necessarily tend to have politics that are more oriented towards the interests of older people? Students will analyse the relationship between demographic structure, organised interests, political parties, and public policies.

Week 11

Population Policies: What Can the State Do? -Pronatalist policies -Migration policies -Family policies Comparative Approach Comparison of selected European models of: - support for childbearing; - work–family reconciliation; - immigrant integration; - management of population ageing. Policy Workshop Working in groups, students will be asked to design a national strategy to address Italy’s demographic transformation.

Week 12

Italy’s Demographic Future - Demographic projections - Population decline or societal transformation? - The role of institutions Seminar Question Governing a Changing Society: What Demographic Agenda for Italy?