STATISTICS
Obiettivi formativi
The main aim is to endow students with basic statistical tools for collecting and analyzing univariate and bivariate data for political, economic, and social sciences applications. Descriptive statistics provide methods for data explorative analysis. Probability theory provides models for phenomena that are subject to uncertainty. Statistical inference provides methods for analyzing data obtained from random experiments. Practical lessons dealing with real-world examples are designed to allow students to improve their abilities in collecting, analyzing, interpreting, and presenting findings and data, also using statistical software and advanced spreadsheet (EXCEL). The EU digital competencies DIGCOMP 2.1 are developed (Competence area 1: information and data literacy; Competence area 2: communication and collaboration; Competence area 3: digital content creation).
Risultati di apprendimento attesi
Knowledge and understanding: knowledge of data types and related univariate analysis techniques (frequency distributions, graphical representations, central tendency, and dispersion measures), probability theory, statistical inference, association in two-way tables, and linear regression.
Applying knowledge and understanding: ability to select appropriate data analysis methods to analyze the relationship between variables in economics, finance, and business
Making judgments: ability to collect, use and critically interpret quantitative and qualitative data relating to economics and social sciences, achieved through the analysis of documents issued by official national and international statistics, scientific articles on statistical methods and applications, and case studies. Digital competencies are developed.
Communication skills: effective skills in communicating data analysis output through written tests and the presentation of research results on empirical data.
Learning skills: ability to learn autonomously data analysis techniques in professional activities or subsequent studies, achieved through the analysis of statistical methods applied in economics and social sciences
Contenuti Del Corso
Theoretical lessons.
Descriptive statistics: Basic concepts. Statistical variables. Frequency distributions. Data graphical representations. Measures of central tendency. Index numbers. Variability.
Joint distributions: dependence, regression, correlation.
Probability. Random experiments and events. Probability axioms and theorems. Discrete and continuous random variables. Probability distributions.
Statistical inference: Sampling distributions. Point Estimation. Interval Estimation. Statistical hypothesis testing.
Practical lessons dealing with real-world examples in political, economic, and social sciences.
Testi Di Riferimento
Cicchitelli, P. D'Urso, M. Minozzo
Title: "Statistics: principles and methods" with MyLab – Pearson
Seeing Theory:
https://seeing-theory.brown.edu
Metodologie Didattiche
Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, interactive visualization, case studies in political, economic and social sciences based on real data, also using statistical and econometric packages and advanced spreadsheet
Modalità di verifica dell'apprendimento
The final examination is in the form of a written test and a Project Work on real data. The written test (scritto verbalizzante) is a type of examination that does not include a subsequent oral examination. It consists of both theoretical and empirical questions, including multiple-choice questions. It verifies the acquisition of Knowledge and understanding, Applying knowledge and understanding, Making judgments. The written test is divided into two tests. The first test is taken during the midterm week (from March 8 to March 13, 2027); the second test can be taken during the Summer Exam Session or the Autumn Exam Session (note that the student can take it just once; if she/he withdraws, the test is not counted). Both the first test and the second test are scored out of fifteen. The final score is the sum of the scores in the two tests. If a student does not pass the first test, she/he will take the complete test with an evaluation out of thirty. If the student is not satisfied with the grade obtained in the midterm test, she/he can refuse it and take the complete test. The Project Work on real data consists of a report on the statistical analysis of empirical data to be carried out in groups of a maximum of three students with the aid of the advanced spreadsheet (EXCEL). It verifies the acquisition of Making judgments, Communication Skills, Learning Skills, Digital skills (1, 2, 3), teamwork, time management, and development of new strategies and solutions to solve problems. The Project Work involves an additional score (1 point) to the grade obtained in the written test. Therefore, the final grade of the exam is obtained by adding to the outcome of the written test the grade obtained in the Project Work (0 or 1 point), limited to the test taken during the first exam session. At the end of the final examination, the teacher publishes the results on the dedicated VOL web page (within one week from the end of the written examination). The students enrolled in the final exam will receive communication with the results of the examination (the outcomes of the written examination will also be displayed on the web self-service). The student has no option to refuse the grade. She/he will be allowed to withdraw for the duration of the test, but in case the student turns in the assignment, the grade received may not be refused.
Criteri per l’assegnazione dell’elaborato finale
The final essay is a work in which statistical methods are applied in politics, economics, or society. The topic is agreed upon with the teacher.
Settimana 1
Chapter 1 Introduction
Sections 1.1 (Introduction),
Sections 1.6 (Basic statistical terms), 1.7 (Measurement scales and type of variables), 1.11 (Some elementary statistical calculations).
Chapter 2 Frequency distributions
Sections 2.1 (Introduction), 2.2 (Frequency distributions and grouped frequency distributions), 2.3 (Bivariate frequency distributions), 2.4 (Time series and spatial series).
Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)
Settimana 2
Chapter 3 Describing data by graphs
Sections 3.1 (Introduction), 3.2 (Graphs for frequency distributions), 3.3 (Graphs for time series), 3.4 (Graphs for spatial series), 3.5 (Scale issues).
Chapter 4 Central tendency
Sections 4.1 (Introduction), 4.2 (Arithmetic mean), 4.7 (Algebraic averages for frequency distributions), 4.8 (Weighted averages), Sections 4.9 (Median), 4.10 (Quartiles and Quantiles), 4.11 (Median, quartiles, and quantiles for frequency distributions, without 4.11.1), 4.12 (Mid-range), 4.13 (Mode)
Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)
Settimana 3
Chapter 5 Variability
Sections 5.1 (Introduction), 5.2 (Measures of dispersion, excluded Mean absolute deviation), 5.4 (Range and interquartile range), 5.5 (Relative measure of variability)
Chapter 6 Shape of frequency distributions
Sections 6.1 (Introduction), 6.2 (Skewness)
Chapter 7 An overview of descriptive summary statistics
Section 7.2.1 (Box plot)
Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)
Settimana 4
Chapter 8 Index Numbers Sections 8.1 (Introduction), 8.2 (Simple index numbers), 8.3 (Composite index numbers, excluded Paasche index).
Chapter 9 Association in contingency tables
Sections 9.1 (Introduction), 9.2 (Marginal and conditional frequency distributions), 9.3 (Graphical representation of bivariate data), 9.4 (Statistical association between X and Y)
Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)
Settimana 5
Chapter 10 Simple linear regression
Sections 10.1 (Introduction), 10.2 (Simple linear regression), 10.3 (Goodness of fit of the regression line)
Chapter 11 Correlation
Sections 11.1 (Introduction), 11.2 (Measuring correlation, without 11.2.1)
Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)”
Settimana 6
Chapter 12 Probability
Sections 12.1 (Introduction), 12.2 (Random experiments, sample space, and events), 12.3 (Probability), 12.4 (Assigning probability to events), 12.5 (Conditional probability), 12.6 (Independent events).
Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)
Settimana 7
Chapter 13 Random variables
Sections 13.1 (Introduction), 13.2 (Discrete random variables), 13.3 (Continuous random variables), 13.4 (Further properties of random variables)
Chapter 14. Some parametric probability distributions
Sections 14.1 (Introduction), 14.3 (Bernoulli distribution), 14.4 (Binomial distributions), 14.6 (Continuous uniform distribution), 14.8 (Normal distribution).
Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory).
Settimana 8
Chapter 15 Joint probability distributions
Sections 15.1 (Introduction), 15.2 (Bivariate random variables), 15.3 (Joint probability distribution of two discrete random variables), 15.5.1 (Linear combinations of random variables)
Chapter 16 The law of large numbers and the central limit theorem
Sections 16.1 (Introduction), 16.2 (Law of large numbers), 16.3 (Central limit theorem)
Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)
Settimana 9
Chapter 17 Random sample and sampling distributions of statistics
Sections 17.1 (Introduction), 17.2 Random sample), 17.3 (Probability distribution of the random sample), 17.4 (Statistics and sampling distributions), 17.5 (Sampling distribution of the sample mean), 17.7 (Sampling distribution of the sample mean with unknown variance)
Chapter 18 Point Estimation
Sections 18.1 (Introduction), 18.2 (Properties of estimators)
Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)
Settimana 10
Chapter 19 Interval estimation
Sections 19.1 (Introduction), 19.2 (Confidence interval for the mean of a normal population when the variance is known), 19.3 (Confidence interval for the mean of a normal population when the variance is unknown), 19.4 (Interval estimation for the mean in case of large samples)
Chapter 20 Hypothesis testing
Sections 20.1 (Introduction), 20.2 (Hypothesis testing procedure), 20.3 (Test for the mean of a normal population with known variance).
Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)
Settimana 11
Chapter 20 Hypothesis testing
Sections 20.4 (Test for the mean of a normal population with unknown variance), 20.5 (Test for a population mean in the case of large samples).
Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)
Settimana 12
Summary exercises