INDUSTRY DYNAMICS

Obiettivi formativi

The course deals with the analysis of the dynamics of firms and industries in modern economies and the forces that shape them. We will depart from a “static” and “equilibrium” view of the firm and of industries (typical in most introductory courses in Industrial Economics) and adopt a dynamic approach in the analysis of the emergence, development and decline of industries.  The following topics will be analyzed:   the entry and exit of firms in the market;   the process of firm growth and its determinants;   the relationships among firm dynamics, firm productivity and aggregate(industry/country) productivity growth;  the role of ICTs for industrial evolution and economic growth;   the process through which industries grow old and the characteristics of the firms at different stages of an industry’s life cycle.   The course has an applied orientation: the introduction and discussion of the empirical evidence on each issue will be central and only few fundamental models will be presented as the theoretical backbone of the analysis. 

Prerequisiti

None

Contenuti Del Corso

The following topics will be analyzed:  • the entry and exit of firms in the market;  • the process of firm growth and its determinants;  • the relationships among firm dynamics, firm productivity and aggregate productivity growth;  • the role of ICTs for industrial evolution, productivity and economic growth;  • the process through which industries grow old and the characteristics of the firms at different stages of an industry’s life cycle.

Testi Di Riferimento

The required reading materials for the course are: Required readings for the Async sessions:   Main instructor slides. Students will need to read the full version of the slides made available by Prof. Pieri to introduce to the contents of each Week. Students should keep in mind that, in the Instructor's videos recorded by Prof. Pieri, a shorter version of the slides have been used for a matter of time constraint. In any case, students have to read and study the full version of the slides to successfully pass the course. Optional readings for the Async sessions: Additional and non-mandatory readings will be provided each Week for you to dive deeper into the topic. These optional readings are useful to expand students' knowledge on the subject. Required material/readings for the Sync sessions with TAs:  Reproducible and commented STATA codes prepared by Teaching Assistants

Metodologie Didattiche

Mix asynchronous (Professor) and synchronous (Teaching Assistants) lectures Teaching Assistants' office hours Individual activities to test and assess the level of understanding, through multiple choice questions, T/F questions and open-ended questions that will be made available at the end of each week Practice with firm-level data by means of the software for data analysis, STATA Preparation of an individual essay on firm growth

Modalità di verifica dell'apprendimento

Students will be evaluated (final mark=100%) based on the following activities: Short essay on firm growth: 50% --> This individual activity will be developed under the supervision of the Teaching Assistants and by using the software for data analysis STATA, partially during TAs' lectures, partially as homeworks. For practical reasons, the short essay will be divided into two parts and will be delivered by the students to the TAs in Week 8 (part I) and Week 12 (part II) Bi-weekly assessment trough questions on theory: 20%  --> at the end of each week, a quiz made up of three questions will be given to students for them to answer; however,  students will have two weeks of time to submit each quiz to allow them to have enough time for studying the material of the Asynchonous lessons. Overall, 6 points over 30 (i.e. 20% of the final mark) will be assigned to all curated exercises during the course. This means that each week the curated exercises will assign a maximum of 0,5 point, which is divided into three questions. Written exam: 20% --> Individual written assessment to be taken online after Week 12 (mix of multiple-choice, T/F, or open-ended questions). The final assessment will correspond to up to 6 points over 30. More details to be released nearer the date. In-person exam: 10% --> Individual oral examination in presence at LUISS campus on the topics and questions contained in the final assessment. The oral exam will correspond to up to 3 points over 30. More details to be released nearer the date.  Sufficient grade needed in all of them. Note. The Instructor will assign the final mark not just as a "simple" average of the grades obtained across all activities and will take into account the performance of a student over time to valorise all her/his efforts. There will not be a mid-term written exam. Further information will be uploaded in the course platform explaining WHEN and HOW the written assessment (online) and the oral exam (in presence) will take place. Note that "non-attending students", i.e., those students that do not participate to the TAs' synchronous sessions and that do not answer the quizzes, will be evaluated for 100% of their final mark on the sole result of the final written exam. Warm suggestion, based on past experience. Apart from being an opportunity to better understand the concepts covered during the asynchonous lessons, the participation to the activities proposed by the TAs (i.e., the writing of the short essay on firm growth) and the correct answers to the quizzes provided by the Professor, will increase significantly the chances of getting a final high mark.

Criteri per l’assegnazione dell’elaborato finale

Professor Pieri is willing to supervise Master theses on topics covered in the Industry Dynamics course, especially with an applied/empirical economics approach (i.e., with a relevant original part represented by the econometrics analysis of firm-, industry-, regional- data).

Il syllabus affronta temi collegati alla sostenibilità?

No

Settimana 1

Week 1 - An introduction to Industrial Dynamics Asynchonous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  List and make comments on the different definitions for that ensemble of firms referred to as Industry. Be able to choose the most appropriate definition/taxonomy, based on the purpose of the analysis Outline the three level of analysis in Industry Dynamics: what does each level of analysis refer to?  Outline the most relevant empirical regularities in Industry Dynamics: firm heterogeneity and its persistence; turbulence; firm size and growth; sectoral differences; structural dynamics E-tivities Multiple choice and open-ended questions on the different definitions and taxonomies of “industry”   Open-ended questions on the three level of analysis of Industry "dynamics" Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course  Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos   Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Carlsson Bo (2016), “Industrial Dynamics: A Review of the Literature 1990-2009”, Industry and Innovation, 23 (1), 1-61.  Malerba F. and Orsenigo L. (1996), “The Dynamics and Evolution of Industries”, Industrial and Corporate Change, 5 (1), pp. 51-87.  Pavitt K. (1984), “Sectoral patterns of technological change: Towards a taxonomy and a theory”, Research Policy, pp. 343- 373.   Vivarelli M. (2013), “Is entrepreneurship necessarily good? Microeconomic evidence from developed and developing countries”, Industrial and Corporate Change, 22 (6), pp. 1453-1495.  TA synchronous session This will be an introductory session to the entire course. The Professor will furnish an overview of the entire course and explain the assessment methods. Moreover, the Teaching Assistants will introduce themselves as well as the objectives of the TA's session, in which you students be led into the econometric software called STATA to perform econometric analysis on real data

Settimana 2

Week 2 - From market structure to  industry dynamics (I)  Asynchonous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  Identify and explain the role of market size, technology and entry costs in the no. of firms active in an Industry Explain what “endogenous” and “exogenous” entry costs refer to E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the role of market size and technology for shaping the structure of an industry    Open-ended questions on the sources of endogenous entry costs  Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course  Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos  Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Cabral L. (2017), Introduction to Industrial Organization (2nd ed.): Chp. 4: “Competition, Equilibrium and Efficiency” Chp. 10: “Market structure” (paragraphs 10.1 and 10.2) TA synchronous session During this week, the Teaching Assistants will introduce the econometric software called STATA, thus students will get familiar with its interface, the way it structures data and learn how to inspect its data.  

Settimana 3

Week 3- From market structure to industry dynamics (II) Asynchonous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  List and discuss the most relevant indexes of industrial structure (Ci and HHI)  Explain the role of entrepreneurial motivations in explaining firm entry in the market  E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the indexes of industrial structure (Ci and HHI);    Open-ended questions on the role of entrepreneurial motivations in explaining firm entry in the market  Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course  Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos  Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Vivarelli M. (2013), “Is entrepreneurship necessarily good? Microeconomic evidence from developed and developing countries”, Industrial and Corporate Change, 22 (6), pp. 1453-1495. TA synchronous session During this week TAs will offer office hours.

Settimana 4

Week 4- Firm growth (1) /4 “Firm growth: typologies, metrics and main theories” Asynchonous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  List and explain the main ways a firm may growth: organic and external growth  Discuss the most relevant theories on firm growth  Discuss Gibrat’s Law: statement, empirical evidence (“early”, “new literature”, “new new literature”), implications for policy  E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the organic and external growth   Multiple choice questions on methods to calculate a growth rate   Open-ended questions on Gibrat’s Law Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course  Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos  Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Coad, A. (2007), “Firm Growth: A survey”, Papers on Economics and Evolution, 0703, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Jena. (Sections 2, 3) Sutton, J. (1997), “Gibrat's Legacy”, Journal of Economic Literature, 1997, 35 (1), 40-59.  Geroski, P. (1999), “The growth of firms in theory and practice”, CEPR Discussion Paper n. 2092 TA synchronous session During this week, students will start with simple operations within an economic dataset. This entails (i) to learn the preparation of an industrial firm-level dataset prior to the analysis by considering the types of variables and selecting, renaming or grouping the variables of interest. Moreover, this means that students will (ii) visualize key variables (i.e., firm size, sales) through the recourse to histograms and kernel density estimators.

Settimana 5

Week 5- Firm Growth (2)/4 “Firm growth: the role of firm age and firm productivity”  Asynchonous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  Explain the role of firm age and  productivity in firm growth; theory and empirical evidence   Outline the “Up or out dynamics” in modern economies: what does it refer to?    Discuss the “Up or out dynamics”, based on the evidence provided in some empirical papers  E-tivities Open-ended questions on the characteristics of firm growth rates distribution;   Multiple choice questions on the moderating role of firm age in the relationship between firm size and firm growth  Open-ended questions regarding the alternative channels through which firm age may affect firm growth  Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos  Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  OECD (2014), “The Dynamics of Employment Growth. New Evidence From 18 Countries”, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers, no. 14. Authors: Criscuolo, C. P. Gal and C. Menon. – Sections 2+3; 4+5  OECD (2016), “No Country for Young Firms? Start-up dynamics and National Policies”, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers, no. 29. Authors: Calvino, F. Criscuolo, C. and C. Menon – Sections 2+3; 4+5  Haltiwanger, J., R. Jarmin and J. Miranda (2013), “Who Creates Jobs? Small Versus Large Versus Young,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 95 (2), 347-361.  Barba Navaretti, G., Castellani, D. and F. Pieri (2014), “Age and firm growth: evidence from three European countries”, Small Business Economics, 43(4), 823-837. The Economist, “Big and clever”, December 2011  The Economist, “Small is not beautiful”, March 2012  The Economist, “Supersize me”, February 2015  The Economist, “The rise of superstars”, September 2016  TA synchronous session During this week TAs will offer office hours.

Settimana 6

Week 6 - Firm growth (3) /4 “Firm growth: The role of innovation” Asynchonous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  Outline the most relevant features of innovation for firm growth: payback times and asymmetric returns  Introduce and discuss the main theoretical links between innovation and firm growth  Introduce the main empirical evidence on the relationship between product, process innovation and employment and sales growth  E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the characteristics of innovation   Multiple choice questions on the empirical evidence on the relationship between innovation and sales/employment growth  Open-ended questions regarding factors related to "desirability" of growth and factors that may be considered "disadvantages" of growth  Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course  Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos  Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Geroski P. (1999), “The growth of firms in theory and practice”, CEPR Discussion Paper n. 2092 TA synchronous session During this week, students will improve their skills on data management by learning how to reshape a dataset format (from long to wide version and vice-versa) and when is useful to perform it to facilitate the dataset building process. In addition, students will learn how to enrich a dataset by combining information from different variables, so generating new ones (i.e., variables with average values). Lastly, students will be introduced to a basic economic bivariate (two-variable) analyses with the help of descriptive statistics and simple statistical tests. 

Settimana 7

Week 7 - Firm growth (4) /4 “High-growth firms” Asynchonous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  Define and explain what a High-growth firm is, based on available definitions  Introduce and discuss the growth “path” (sequence of episodes) followed by high growth firms  Introduce and discuss the main stylized facts regarding those factors that go hand in hand with high growth episodes  E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the role that sectoral specificities play (if any) for High-growth firms   Multiple choice questions on growth path, followed on average, by high-growth firms   Open-ended questions regarding the anticipatory, concurrent and subsequent characteristics of high-growth firms  with respect to their counterparts Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course  Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos  Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Moreno, F. and A. Coad (2015), “High-Growth Firms: Stylized Facts and Conflicting Results”, SPRU Working Paper Series, 2015-05  Hathaway, I. (2018) “High-growth firms and cities in the US: An analysis of the Inc. 5000”  Hathaway, I. (2020) “The Myth of the Young Startup Founder”   OECD (2021) “Understanding Firm Growth, Helping SMEs scale up”   TA synchronous session During this week TAs will offer office hours.

Settimana 8

Week 8 – Productivity (1)/3  “Productivity: definitions and from micro to macro”  Asynchonous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  Define what productivity does refer to and the most used definitions of it  Compute aggregate productivity levels and growth rates based on micro-level information; discuss what does the within-, between-firm, covariance and net entry components refer to  Outline and discuss the relevance of each of the components above, based on the available empirical evidence  E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the definitions of productivity   Multiple choice questions on the definition and relevance of the within-, between-firm, covariance and net entry components   Open-ended questions regarding the appropriate policies to sustain productivity growth, based on the available empirical evidence  Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course  Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Bravo-Biosca, A. (2011), “A look at business growth and contraction in Europe”, NESTA Working PaperNo. 11/02, London.  Haltiwanger J. (2011), “Firm dynamics and productivity growth”, EIB Papers, 16 (1), 116-136. TA synchronous session During this week, students will complete the topic related to the bivariate analysis, previously introduced during last session. In particular, students will focus on: (1) how variables relate in terms of association and types of associations (i.e. should the association be linear or polynomial); (2) highlighting the relevant characteristics of the variable of interest (i.e. by inspecting their distributions). In addition, students will go on with the supervised practical session aimed at learning STATA commands to perform econometric analyses related to firm growth (i.e., verifying Gibrat’s law) 

Settimana 9

Week 9 – Productivity (2)/3  “Productivity: determinants”  Asynchonous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:   Introduce and discuss the main determinants of productivity, based on the available empirical evidence  Outline the role of managerial practices in firm productivity, based on the empirical evidence in a cross-country perspective E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the role of managerial practices in firm productivity  Multiple choice questions on other determinants of productivity   Open-ended questions regarding both "internal" and "external" drivers of productivity Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course  Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Bloom N. and Van Reenen J (2010), “Why Do Management Practices Differ across Firms and Countries?”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24 (1), pp. 203-224 Syverson, C. (2011), “What determines productivity?”, Journal of Economic Literature, 49 (2), 326-365. (Sections 2 and 3)  TA synchronous session During this week TAs will offer office hours.

Settimana 10

Week 10 – Productivity (3)/3 “Productivity and economic growth”  Asynchonous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  Introduce and discuss, from a theoretical point of view, the role of productivity in economic growth and clarify the channel through which productivity is key for a sustainable growth path of modern economies  Outline and discuss the relevance productivity growth and technological change for economic growth, based on the available empirical evidence   E-tivities Open-ended questions regarding the process of modern "growth": industrialization, capitalism, democracy Multiple choice questions on the role of productivity for economic growth, based on the neoclassical growth model   Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course  Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  van Ark B., O'Mahony M. and Timmer M. P. (2011), “The Productivity Gap between Europe and the United States: Trends and Causes”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22 (1), pp. 25-44  OECD (2015), The Future of Productivity, OECD Publishing, Paris. Chaps. 1, 2, 3, 4  Mckinsey Global Institute (2018), Solving the Productivity Puzzle: The Role of Demand and the Promise of  Digitization  Jona-Lasinio,  C.,  Schiavo,  S.,  &  Weyerstrass,  K.  (2019).  “How  to  revive  productivity growth?”, EconPol Policy Report, 3(13)  TA synchronous session During this week, the Teaching Assistants will introduce the topic related to linear regression analysis and its application to investigate firm growth. The session, which will find its completion in Week 12, is focused on: (i) presenting the general features of a linear regression analysis; and (ii) how to estimate the relationship between firm growth and firm-related variables. In addition, students will go on with the supervised practical session aimed at learning STATA commands to analyze the relationship between firm age and growth (i.e., graphically displaying the firm growth rate by size and age).

Settimana 11

Week 11 - ICTs, industrial revolutions and economic growth  Asynchonous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  Outline and discuss the impact of electronic-based ICTs on economic growth and the modern firm   E-tivities Open-ended questions regarding the the features of the inventions of the #IR2 and #IR3  Multiple choice questions on the impact of electronic-based ICTs on economic growth and the modern firm  Open-ended questions regarding the phenomenon of "Great Decoupling" Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course  Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Gordon, R. J. (2012), “Is U.S. economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the size headwinds”, NBER working paper, 18135  Brynjolfsson E. and A. McAfee (2015), Harvard Business Review, “The Great Decoupling: An Interview with Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee”, by Amy Bernstein and Anand Raman, June 2015. TA synchronous session During this week TAs will offer office hours.

Settimana 12

Week 12 - Industry life cycle Asynchonous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:   Introduce and discuss the Industry life cycle framework and the theoretical explanations provided for it    Outline the main empirical evidence regarding the Industry life cycle framework; what dimensions of an industry should be checked to confirm/reject the ILC framework?   E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the ILC theoretical framework  Multiple choice questions on the dimensions of an industry that should be checked to confirm/reject the ILC framework Open-ended questions on the early entrants' advantage Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course  Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis Utterback J. M. and Abernathy W. J. (1975), “A Dynamic Model of Process and Product Innovation”, OMEGA, 3 (6), 639-656. Suarez F. F. and J. M. Utterback (1995), “Dominant Designs and The Survival of Firms”, Strategic Management Journal, 16, 415-430.  Klepper, S. (1996), “Entry, exit, growth and innovation over the product life cycle”, American Economic Review, 86, pp. 562-583.  Helfat, C. E. (2015), “Vertical firm structure and industry evolution”, Industrial and Corporate Change, 24 (4), 803-818.  TA synchronous session During this week, the class will complete the topic related to the linear regression analysis, previously introduced in Week 10. The session is focused on making more complex linear models by: (i) introducing the concept of dummy variables (i.e., their inclusion and their impact in interpreting regression coefficients); (ii) tackling non-linear relations through polynomial variables. In addition, students will go on with the supervised practical session aimed at learning STATA commands to analyze the characteristics of fast-growing firms (i.e., by running a linear regression analysis).