LAB OF DATA ANALYSIS FOR ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCES

LAB OF DATA ANALYSIS FOR ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL SCIENCES

Paolo Perciballi

Obiettivi formativi

The main aim is to endow students with the following abilities: ability to collect and process data, ability to interpret findings and to communicate results useful not only to formulate critical judgments on the economic, social and political issues behind the working of a real economic system; but also to communicate information, ideas, problems and solutions to both specialists and non-specialists audiences. These abilities match the Dublin Descriptors no. 3 independent ability of judging: to gather and interpret relevant data usually within their field of study to inform judgments that include reflection on relevant social, scientific or ethical issues; no. 4 communicative skills: to communicate information, ideas, problems and solutions to both specialist and non-specialist audiences. The methodological approach consists of empirical analysis based on real data at a national (regional and provincial) and international level, drawn from official databases (ISTAT, EUROSTAT, OECD, IMF, WTO, World Bank, etc.) and processed in order to carry out both spatial benchmarking and time series analysis. The teaching method is interactive and involves the use of a pc by the students to manage data by means of Microsoft Office Excel and other statistical/econometrics packages. The final objective is to provide expertise referring to Excel Advanced and the Digital Competence Framework DIGCOMP 2.0 with reference to Area 1-Information and data literacy and Area 3- Digital content creation. These areas correspond to the following ECDL (European Computer Driving Licence) modules: Computer Essentials; Online Essentials; Word Processing; Spreadsheets. Regarding Area 3 (Digital content creation), the Laboratory focuses mainly on the sub-themes of the ECDL Advanced Spreadsheets and Advanced Database modules.

Risultati di apprendimento attesi

Knowledge and understanding Ability to collect and process data, to interpret findings and to communicate results to formulate critical judgments on the economic, social and political issues behind the working of a real economic system. Applying knowledge and understanding Starting from topics related to current events in economic policy field, ability to identify the proper data source from official statistics providers, to export data in the available format (Excel, csv or others), to process data using advanced Microsoft Excel functionalities or other statistical tools, to interpret findings and to communicate results through charts, tables and dashboards and technical report Making judgements Ability to manage the whole data processing, from collection to presentation of most significant findings, makes students independent in developing an analysis of the socio-economic political topic they face. They can express opinions and support a thesis on the basis of real data, according to a scientific approach, so favoring the development of the making judgements. Communications Skills Ability to communicate results useful not only to formulate critical judgments on the economic, social and political issues behind the working of a real economic system, but also to communicate information, ideas, problems and solutions to both specialists and non-specialists audiences. Learning skills With respect to political, economics and social issue, ability to identify, in an independent manner, data sources, tools and carrying out statistical analysis to find information. Ability to technically understand the current news about political, economics and social issues.

Contenuti Del Corso

Every lesson faces topics related to current events in economic policy field starting from real data processed by means of techniques of applied statistics to a workbook created in Excel using commands, formula and functions (sum, average, max-min, standard deviation, standardization, correlation, regression, logic function “and”, “or”, “if”, etc.) and other statistical/econometrics software (GRETL). The approach consists in empirically verify for the real Italian economy the key theoretical macroeconomics themes addressed in the course books of Macroeconomics and Economic Policy with a twofold degree of analysis: national with regional and provincial detail; international (OECD, G7, Advanced and Emerging countries, etc.) with a particular attention to the European Union (EU) benchmarking. Every lesson endows student with the following skills of Excel Advanced: apply advanced formatting options such as conditional formatting and customized number formatting and handle worksheets; use functions such as those associated with logical, statistical, financial and mathematical operations; create charts and apply advanced chart formatting features; work with tables and lists to analyze, filter and sort data; validate and audit spreadsheet data; enhance productivity by working with macros; use linking, embedding and importing features to integrate data. http://ecdl.org/about-ecdl/advanced-spreadsheets Moreover, the student acquires digital skills recognized by The Digital Competence Framework DIGCOMP 2.0 with reference to Area 1-Information and data literacy: to articulate information needs, to locate and retrieve digital data, information and content; to judge the relevance of the source and its content; to store, manage, and organise digital data, information and content. Specifically, the skills developed are: 1.1 browsing, searching and filtering information and digital content; 1.2 evaluating data, information and digital content; 1.3 managing data, information and digital content. Moreover, the student will acquire also digital skills related to the Area 3-Digital content creation (DIGCOMP 2.0) set out in: a) the ECDL Advanced Spreadsheets module (Apply advanced formatting options such as conditional formatting and customised number formatting and handle worksheets; Use functions such as those associated with logical, statistical, financial and mathematical operations; Create charts and apply advanced chart formatting features; Work with tables and lists to analyse, filter and sort data. Create and use scenarios; Validate and audit spreadsheet data; Enhance productivity by working with named cell ranges, macros and templates; Use linking, embedding and importing features to integrate data; Collaborate on and review spreadsheets; Apply spreadsheet security features); b) Advanced Database (Understand key concepts of database development and usage; Create a relational database using advanced table creation features and complex relationships between tables; Enhance productivity by working with macros and use linking and importing features to integrate data). Being a Laboratory the range of topics can stay “in progress”. So it is important to be ready to deviate from what previously planned in the syllabus, when a specific requirement encountering general interest should emerge from the audience or topical economic issues should make it necessary to look into more deeply. Having said that, of course a formula is a formula, whatever it is used for.

Testi Di Riferimento

REFERENCE READING Istat http://dati.istat.it/ Eurostat http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database Commissione europea https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/indicators-statistics/economic-databases/business-and-consumer-surveys/download-business-and-consumer-survey-data/time-series_en OCSE http://stats.oecd.org/ FMI http://www.imf.org/en/data Banca Mondiale http://data.worldbank.org/ UNESCO http://data.uis.unesco.org/ ISTAT Rapporto sulla competitività dei settori produttivi - Edizione 2017 http://www.istat.it/it/archivio/197346 ISTAT Benessere equo sostenibile http://www.istat.it/it/benessere-e-sostenibilit%C3%A0 ISTAT NOI Italia - Edizione 2016 http://noi-italia.istat.it/ European Commission Regional Competitiveness Index RCI http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/information/maps/regional_competitiveness/ OECD Education at a Glance 2016: OECD Indicators http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/education/education-at-a-glance-2016_eag-2016-en OECD Government at a glance, 2015 http://www.oecd.org/gov/govataglance.htm World Bank Doing Business 2017 - Understanding Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises http://www.doingbusiness.org/ UNIONCAMERE ATLANTE della competitività delle province e delle regioni http://www.unioncamere.gov.it/Atlante/index.htm WEF The Global Competitiveness Report 2016 - 2017 https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-competitiveness-report-2016-2017-1

Metodologie Didattiche

The teaching method is interactive because implies the simultaneous use of a pc by the teacher and students to manage data in excel and in other statistical/econometrics packages. The lesson scheme foresees an input that is to say an assertion about an economic phenomenon inspired by the topical economic issues drawn from a media, tv and radio broadcasting, newspaper or on line official press release from any organization committed to provide statistics. The range of themes covered by the course aims at explaining: the way in which the whole economic system functions through the analysis of all economic operators (households, enterprises, government, private institutions) and their corresponding functions (consumption, production of goods and services, investment, international trade); how the recently implemeted policy measures could affect the real economy by taking into account the relationship between macroeconomic variables (i.e. Okun law, Phillips curve, etc.). The lesson scheme foresees also an output consisting of the following steps: 1st step – problem formulation for the phenomenon of interest; 2nd step – data searching; 3rd step – data gathering through access to databases; 4th step – data extraction; 5th step – data analysis and depiction with tables/graphs; 6th step – interpretation and description of the results. The elaboration phase involves the application of specific statistical devices both basic and advanced such sum, average, ratios, index of dispersion, deflators, percentage variations, linear regression (OLS), standardization, seasonal adjustment, trend-cycle analysis. The teacher and the students carry out jointly each step and in case of difficulty the teacher will assist the student until he/she will be able to manage the task independently.

Modalità di verifica dell'apprendimento

The final eligibility will be released after passing an empirical test with tasks to be performed individually by each student on the PC. The students enrolled in the final exam are requested: 1. to gather data; 2. to process data using statistical or logical functions; 3. to represent the findings of the elaboration by means of charts and tables; 4. to interpret and comment the main findings. The topic will be chosen by the teacher among the material already taught during the course (see ex post files in LUISS e-learning platform http://learn.luiss.it). During the practice test, all students are also requested to shown how to download dataset in excel format from the main on line databases such as ISTAT, OECD, EUROSTAT, IMF, UNITED NATIONS, WORLD BANK. Alternatively, an optional teamwork (3/4 students at most) could be opted-in. The teamwork consists of a mini-report in word structured as follows: a) short theoretical overview of the subject; b) data gathering and description; c) statistical methods applied to process data; d) interpretation and comment of the findings; e) concluding remarks; f) References and webliography. For students who opt-in the mini-report the topic of the final examination will be the same as the one chosen in the mini report. The final report in word and the workbook in excel containing the raw data, the elaborations and the results have to be sent to the teacher by e-mail. The deadline for the final report is one week before the exam session chosen.

Criteri per l’assegnazione dell’elaborato finale

NO

Settimana 1

1.1 - Population: demography, migration and projections Population structure by age Demographic indicators: dependency ratio by age, old and youth dependency ratio, ageing index, working age population per pension age, generational turnover, birth rate, fertility rate, life expectancy at birth marriage rate, etc. Foreign population: migration flows, total immigrants (stock), acquisitions of citizenship Natural population growth rate: time series and projections 1.2 - Labor market: basic analysis Working age population by labor status Characteristic ratios: employment, unemployment, youth unemployment, long-term unemployment, inactivity, potential additional labor force (inactive and discouraged persons) Characteristic ratios: regional and provincial comparisons and international benchmarking Labor market indicators time series

Settimana 2

2.1 - Labor market: focus on some features Young people, female gender gap, foreigners (employment and unemployment rate) Young people not in employment, education or training: the NEET Educational attainment (ISCED) and labor market indicators: the Italy’s anomalies 2.2 - Households economic conditions Disposable income Poverty: absolute and relative, deprivation rate Income distribution inequality: the Gini coefficient Consumer confidence index

Settimana 3

3.1 - Households consumption expenditures Consumption expenditure by purpose (COICOP) Propensity to consume and save Consumption expenditures deflator and household purchasing power 3.2 - Inflation Inflation calculation: the basket of goods and services and weighting composition Different types of consumer price indices (NIC, HICP, FOI, core inflation) The Phillips curve: an empirical estimation for Italy

Settimana 4

4.1 - Macroeconomics: structural analysis The output approach: from added value to GDP The expenditure approach: domestic and foreign demand The macroeconomic indicators: openness to trade, accumulation rate, etc. GDP per capita and international benchmarking using Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) Labor productivity Okun’s law: an empirical estimation for Italy Potential GDP 4.2 - Macroeconomics: mid-long term analysis Nominal and real growth Identifying business cycles Territorial economic convergence: regional and international comparisons

Settimana 5

5.1 - Macroeconomics: short-term analysis (monthly and quarterly) Quarterly national accounts Industrial production, turnover and orders Business and consumer confidence; general economic confidence Production in the construction sector Turnover in services and retail trade Foreign trade Business cycle leading indicators: ESI (European Commission); CLI (OECD); PMI (HIS Markit) 5.2 - Public finance The relevance of the public sector in the economy General government expenditures: expenditure by function (COFOG) General government expenditures: interests payable, bond yelds and spread Revenues, taxation and fiscal pressure Fiscal balances Public debt and economic sustainability

Settimana 6

6.1 - Welfare Social protection expenditure Pensions Public supply of day nurseries and female employment rate Children benefiting from day nurseries and childcare services Expenditure on social services and benefits provided by municipalities 6.2 - Human capital: quantitative and qualitative indicators Public educational expenditure by ISCED classification Human capital intensity: mean years of schooling, and graduates-to-population ratio and graduated-to-employed ratio Quality of education: proficiency levels of students aged 16-64 years in the PISA test Human capital and economic growth

Settimana 7

7.1 - Productive structure and entrepreneurship Business density (number of enterprises per 1,000 inhabitants) Characteristics and specializations by ATECO/NACE/ISIC classification and by technology intensity (high-tech, medium-tech, low-tech) Self employed to total employed ratio Business demography: birth rate, death rate and survival rate Innovative Start-up Business confidence survey 7.2 - Productive structure and international specialization Export, import e trade balance Sectoral export propensity and specializations Export by country destination World market share and Revealed Comparative Advantage RCA

Settimana 8

8.1 - Agriculture The relevance of the agriculture sector within the economy (added value, GDP, employment, enterprises, export, etc.) Quality agro-food products (PDO, PGI and TSI quality products) Agritourism farms 8.2 - Research and innovation Human Resources in Science and Technology (HRST) High-skill jobs by ISCO classification Innovative enterprises, ICT investments R&D expenditure (absolute values and % of GDP), researchers and R&D personnel (% of population and % of total employment) Patents: patents-to-population ratio and world share Citizens and the ICTs

Settimana 9

9.1 - Energy Energy consumption and foreign dependence Electricity generation and renewable sources Pollution and environmental protection (greenhouse gas emissions, recycling, etc.) Investments on environmental protection for industry Regulation and economic development 9.2 - Cultural heritage and tourism UNESCO world heritage sites Enterprises in cultural sector and cultural employment Public expenditure on culture Private expenditure on cultural goods and services in PPS and in relation to the total household consumption Cultural participation: reading books and newspapers (also e-books) e-magazines; music; photos, videos including films and TV programmes; going to cinema, going to theatres and concerts and visiting cultural sites Tourism demand: trips of residents; tourism supply: tourism accommodation establishments, top world destinations Tourism expenditure: final consumption expenditure of non-resident households on the economic territory and final consumption expenditure of resident households in the rest of the world

Settimana 10

10.1 - Input-output tables (IOTs)and economic impact evaluation Leontief matrix structure Input-coefficient matrix Calculation of the Leontief inverse matrix in order to identify the direct, indirect (inter-industry) and induced (by household expenditures) effects

Settimana 11

11.1 - Construction of synthetic indicators: enterprises, sectors and households Enterprises: the two dimensions of the competitiveness (labor productivity and labor cost) Sectors: the four dimensions of the competitiveness (cost competitiveness, profitability, export propensity and innovation) Households: the twelve dimensions of the Equitable and Sustainable Well-being BES (health, education and training, work and life balance, economic well-being, social relationship, politics and institutions, security, subjective well-being, landscape and cultural heritage, environment, research and innovation, quality of services)

Settimana 12

12.1 - Construction of synthetic indicators of the territorial attractiveness The twelve dimensions of the territorial attractiveness (institutions, macroeconomic stability, infrastructures, health, quantity and quality of human capital of primary and secondary education, tertiary and post-tertiary and life-long learning, labor market efficiency, market size, technological readiness, business sophistication, innovation) National comparison at a regional and a provincial level International comparison at European level (NUTS2)