STATISTICS

Instructional goals

The main aim is to endow students with basic statistical tools for collecting and analysing univariate and bivariate data for political, economic, and social sciences applications. Descriptive statistics provide methods for data explorative analysis. Probability theory provides models for phenomena that are subject to uncertainty. Statistical inference provides methods for analyzing data obtained from random experiments. Practical lessons dealing with real-world examples are designed to allow students to improve their abilities in collecting, analyzing, interpreting, and presenting findings and data, also using statistical software and advanced spreadsheet (EXCEL). The EU digital competencies DIGCOMP 2.1 are developed (Competence area 1: information and data literacy; Competence area 2: communication and collaboration; Competence area 3: digital content creation).

Intended learning outcomes

Knowledge and understanding: knowledge of data types and related univariate analysis techniques (frequency distributions, graphical representations, central tendency, and dispersion measures), probability theory, statistical inference, association in two-way tables, and linear regression. Applying knowledge and understanding: ability to select appropriate data analysis methods to analyze the relationship between variables in economics, finance, and business Making judgments: ability to collect, use and critically interpret quantitative and qualitative data relating to economics and social sciences, achieved through the analysis of documents issued by official national and international statistics, scientific articles on statistical methods and applications, and case studies. Digital competencies are developed. Communication skills: effective skills in communicating data analysis output through written tests and the presentation of research results on empirical data. Learning skills: ability to learn autonomously data analysis techniques in professional activities or subsequent studies, achieved through the analysis of statistical methods applied in economics and social sciences

Course Contents

Theoretical lessons. Descriptive statistics: Basic concepts. Statistical variables. Frequency distributions. Data graphical representations. Measures of central tendency. Index numbers. Variability. Joint distributions: dependence, regression, correlation. Probability. Random experiments and events. Probability axioms and theorems. Discrete and continuous random variables. Probability distributions. Statistical inference: Sampling distributions. Point Estimation. Interval Estimation. Statistical hypothesis testing. Practical lessons dealing with real-world examples in political, economic, and social sciences.

Reference Books

Cicchitelli, P. D'Urso, M. Minozzo Title: "Statistics: principles and methods" con MyLab – Pearson Seeing Theory: https://seeing-theory.brown.edu

Teaching Methods

Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, interactive visualization, case studies in political, economic and social sciences based on real data, also using statistical and econometric packages and advanced spreadsheet

Assessment Method

The final examination is in the form of a written test and a Project Work on real data. The written test can consist of three tests with an evaluation out of tenths (the last test is taken during the first session), and the final score is the sum of the scores in the three tests. During the first session, it is possible to keep the first two partial tests valid and to take only the third test (note that the student can take it just once; if she/he withdraws, the test is not counted). Alternatively, the student can opt for a single complete test with an evaluation out of thirty. Therefore, the student can take three written tests, each with an evaluation in tenths or a unique test with an evaluation out of thirty. In the case of three tests, the final score is the sum of the three scores. If the student is not satisfied with the grade obtained, she/he can refuse it and take the exam with a single complete test, in any case. Any written test consists of both theoretical and empirical questions, including multiple-choice questions. It verifies the acquisition of Knowledge and understanding, Applying knowledge and understanding, Making judgments. The project work on real data consists of a report on the statistical analysis of empirical data to be carried out in groups of a maximum of three students with the aid of the advanced spreadsheet (EXCEL). It verifies the acquisition of Making judgments, Communication Skills, Learning Skills, Digital skills (1, 2, 3), teamwork, time management, and development of new strategies and solutions to solve problems. The Project Work involves an additional score of up to 1 point on the grade obtained in the written test. The final grade of the exam is obtained by adding to the outcome of the written test the grade obtained in the Project Work (0 or 1 point), limited to the test taken - with any outcome – during the first exam session. WRITTEN EXAMINATION: this type of examination ("scritto verbalizzante") consists of a written test without a subsequent oral examination. The student must book for the written test. At the end of the final examination, the teacher corrects the homework and publishes the results on the dedicated VOL web page (within one week from the end of the written examination). The students enrolled in the final exam will receive a communication with the results of the final examination (the outcomes of the written examination will also be displayed on the web self-service). Since the publication of the results, the student has 3 days to reject the grade. Once the 3-day period is elapsed, the rule of "tacit consent" applies, and the examination result is verbalized by the teacher. The teacher has to close down the verbal through the digital signature. Once the verbal is closed down, the student receives an e-mail communication reporting the mark obtained. The text of the final proof and the corresponding solutions are made available on the class website before the publication of the results. Each candidate can access the solution of the written exam in a way that, independently from the final outcome of the exam, the student will be on time to be able to reject the proposed vote.

Thesis assignment criteria

The final essay is a work in which statistical methods are applied in politics, economics, or society. The topic is agreed upon with the teacher.

Week 1 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Chapter 1 Introduction Sections 1.1 (Introduction), Sections 1.6 (Basic statistical terms), 1.7 (Measurement scales and type of variables), 1.11 (Some elementary statistical calculations). Chapter 2 Frequency distributions Sections 2.1 (Introduction), 2.2 (Frequency distributions and grouped frequency distributions), 2.3 (Bivariate frequency distributions), 2.4 (Time series and spatial series). Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)

Week 2 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Chapter 3 Describing data by graphs Sections 3.1 (Introduction), 3.2 (Graphs for frequency distributions), 3.3 (Graphs for time series), 3.4 (Graphs for spatial series), 3.5 (Scale issues). Chapter 4 Central tendency Sections 4.1 (Introduction), 4.2 (Arithmetic mean), 4.5 (Quadratic mean), 4.7 (Algebraic averages for frequency distributions), 4.8 (Weighted averages) Chapter 8 Index Numbers Sections 8.1 (Introduction), 8.2 (Simple index numbers), 8.3 (Composite index numbers, excluded Paasche index). Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)

Week 3 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Chapter 4 Central tendency Sections 4.9 (Median), 4.10 (Quartiles and Quantiles), 4.11 (Median, quartiles, and quantiles for frequency distributions, without 4.11.1), 4.12 (Mid-range), 4.13 (Mode) Chapter 5 Variability Sections 5.1 (Introduction), 5.2 (Measures of dispersion, excluded Mean absolute deviation), 5.4 (Range and interquartile range), 5.5 (Relative measure of variability) Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)

Week 4 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Chapter 6 Shape of frequency distributions Sections 6.1 (Introduction), 6.2 (Skewness) Chapter 7 An overview of descriptive summary statistics Section 7.2.1 (Box plot) Chapter 9 Association in contingency tables Sections 9.1 (Introduction), 9.2 (Marginal and conditional frequency distributions), 9.3 (Graphical representation of bivariate data), 9.4 (Statistical association between X and Y) Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)

Week 5 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Chapter 10 Simple linear regression Sections 10.1 (Introduction), 10.2 (Simple linear regression), 10.3 (Goodness of fit of the regression line) Chapter 11 Correlation Sections 11.1 (Introduction), 11.2 (Measuring correlation, without 11.2.1) Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)”

Week 6 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Chapter 12 Probability Sections 12.1 (Introduction), 12.2 (Random experiments, sample space and events), 12.3 (Probability), 12.4 (Assigning probability to events), 12.5 (Conditional probability), 12.6 (Independent events). Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)

Week 7 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Chapter 13 Random variables Sections 13.1 (Introduction), 13.2 (Discrete random variables), 13.3 (Continuous random variables), 13.4 (Further properties of random variables) Chapter 14. Some parametric probability distributions Sections 14.1 (Introduction), 14.3 (Bernoulli distribution), 14.4 (Binomial distributions), 14.6 (Continuous uniform distribution), 14.8 (Normal distribution). Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory).

Week 8 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Chapter 15 Joint probability distributions Sections 15.1 (Introduction), 15.2 (Bivariate random variables), 15.3 (Joint probability distribution of two discrete random variables), 15.5.1 (Linear combinations of random variables) Chapter 16 The law of large numbers and the central limit theorem Sections 16.1 (Introduction), 16.2 (Law of large numbers), 16.3 (Central limit theorem) Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)

Week 9 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Chapter 17 Random sample and sampling distributions of statistics Sections 17.1 (Introduction), 17.2 Random sample), 17.3 (Probability distribution of the random sample), 17.4 (Statistics and sampling distributions), 17.5 (Sampling distribution of the sample mean), 17.7 (Sampling distribution of the sample mean with unknown variance) Chapter 18 Point Estimation Sections 18.1 (Introduction), 18.2 (Properties of estimators) Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)

Week 10 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Chapter 19 Interval estimation Sections 19.1 (Introduction), 19.2 (Confidence interval for the mean of a normal population when the variance is known), 19.3 (Confidence interval for the mean of a normal population when the variance is unknown), 19.4 (Interval estimation for the mean in case of large samples) Chapter 20 Hypothesis testing Sections 20.1 (Introduction), 20.2 (Hypothesis testing procedure), 20.3 (Test for the mean of a normal population with known variance). Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)

Week 11 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Chapter 20 Hypothesis testing Sections 20.4 (Test for the mean of a normal population with unknown variance), 20.5 (Test for a population mean in the case of large samples). Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, and case studies concerning research questions in political, economic, and social sciences based on real data. Learning by interactive visualization (Seeing Theory)

Week 12 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Summary exercises