INDUSTRY DYNAMICS

INDUSTRY DYNAMICS

Fabio Pieri, Alexandra Badort

Instructional goals

The course deals with the analysis of the dynamics of firms and industries in modern economies and the forces that shape them. We will depart from a “static” and “equilibrium” view of the firm and of industries (typical in most introductory courses in Industrial Economics) and adopt a dynamic approach in the analysis of the emergence, development and decline of industries.  The following topics will be analyzed:   the entry and exit of firms in the market;   the process of firm growth and its determinants;   the relationships among firm dynamics, firm productivity and aggregate(industry/country) productivity growth;  the role of ICTs for industrial evolution and economic growth;   the process through which industries grow old and the characteristics of the firms at different stages of an industry’s life cycle.   The course has an applied orientation: the introduction and discussion of the empirical evidence on each issue will be central and only few fundamental models will be presented as the theoretical backbone of the analysis. 

Intended learning outcomes

At the completion of this course, students will be able to: Knowledge and understanding know the role of market structure for competition and the dynamics through which firms enter and exit the market Applying knowledge and understanding calculate and discuss firm growth through the empirical analysis of balance sheet data put firm dynamics and firm productivity into perspective within the process of (macro-)economic growth Making Judgements compare the main theories on firm growth and its determinants critically discuss the main elements of the debate on the micro-and macro-economic effects of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) Communication Skills develop the necessary skills to organize and write the results of an empirical analysis with firm-level data, supervised by the help of the Teaching Assistants Learning Skills interpret the results of the relevant empirical studies in Industrial Dynamics

Course Contents

The modules of the course will cover the following topics: An introduction to Industrial Dynamics From market structure to industry dynamics (I)  From market structure to industry dynamics (II) Firm growth (1) /4 “Firm growth: typologies, metrics and main theories” Firm Growth (2)/4 “Firm growth: the role of firm age and firm productivity”  Firm growth (3) /4 “Firm growth: The role of innovation” Firm growth (4) /4 “High-growth firms” Productivity (1)/3 “Productivity: definitions and from micro to macro”  Productivity (2)/3  “Productivity: determinants”  Productivity (3)/3 “Productivity and economic growth”  ICTs, industrial revolutions and economic growth Industry life cycle

Reference Books

The required reading materials for the course are: Required readings for the Async sessions:   Main instructor slides. Students will need to read the full version of the slides made available by Prof. Pieri to introduce to the contents of each Week. Students should keep in mind that, in the Instructor's videos recorded by Prof. Pieri, a shorter version of the slides have been used for a matter of time constraint. In any case, students have to read and study the full version of the slides to successfully pass the course. Optional readings for the Async sessions: Additional and non-mandatory readings will be provided each Week for you to dive deeper into the topic. These optional readings are useful to expand students' knowledge on the subject. Required material/readings for the TA Sessions:  Reproducible and commented STATA codes prepared by Teaching Assistant

Teaching Methods

fully asynchronous Individual activities to test and assess the level of understanding, through multiple choice questions, T/F questions and open-ended questions that will be made available at the end of each week Practice with firm-level data by means of the software for data analysis, STATA Preparation of an individual essay on firm growth

Assessment Method

Students will be evaluated (final mark=100%) based on the following activities: Short essay on firm growth: 20% --> This individual activity will be developed under the supervision of the Teaching Assistant and by using the software for data analysis STATA, partially during TA sessions, partially as homeworks. For practical reasons, the short essay will be divided into two parts and will be delivered by the students to the TA in Week 8 (part I) and Week 12 (part II). The short essay will correspond to up to 6 points over 30. Bi-weekly assessment trough questions on theory: 60% --> at the end of each week, a quiz made up of three questions (either multiple-choice, T/F, or open-ended) will be given to students for them to answer; however,  students will have two weeks of time to submit each quiz to allow them to have enough time for studying the material of the Asynchonous lessons. Overall, up to 18 points over 30 (i.e. 20% of the final mark) will be assigned to all curated exercises during the course. This means that each week the curated exercises will assign a maximum of 1,5 point, divided into three questions. Final assessment: 10% --> Individual written assessment to be taken online after Week 12 (mix of multiple-choice, T/F, or open-ended questions). The final assessment will correspond to up to 3 points over 30. More details to be released nearer the date. In-person exam: 10% --> Individual oral examination in presence at LUISS campus on the topics and questions contained in the final assessment. The oral exam will correspond to up to 3 points over 30. More details to be released nearer the date.  Sufficient grade needed in all of them. Note. The Instructor will assign the final mark not just as a "simple" average of the grades obtained across all activities and will take into account the performance of a student over time to valorize all her/his efforts.  There will not be a mid-term written exam.  Further information will be uploaded in the course platform explaining WHEN and HOW the written assessment (online) and the oral exam (in presence) will take place. Note that "non-attending students", i.e., those students that do not participate to the TA sessions and that do not answer the quizzes, will be evaluated based on the following activities: Final assessment: 90% --> Individual written assessment to be taken online after Week 12 (mix of multiple-choice, T/F, or open-ended questions). The final assessment will correspond to up to 27 points over 30. More details to be released nearer the date. In-person exam: 10% --> Individual oral examination in presence at LUISS campus on the topics and questions contained in the final assessment. The oral exam will correspond to up to 3 points over 30. More details to be released nearer the date.  Warm suggestion, based on past experience. Apart from being an opportunity to better understand the concepts covered during the asynchronous lessons, the participation to the activities proposed by the TA (i.e., the writing of the short essay on firm growth) and the correct answers to the quizzes provided by the Professor, will increase significantly the chances of getting a final high mark.

Thesis assignment criteria

Professor Pieri is willing to supervise Master theses on topics covered in the Industry Dynamics course, especially with an applied/empirical economics approach (i.e., with a relevant original part represented by the econometrics analysis of firm-, industry-, regional- data).

Week 1

Week 1- An introduction to Industrial Dynamics Asynchronous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  List and make comments on the different definitions for that ensemble of firms referred to as Industry. Be able to choose the most appropriate definition/taxonomy, based on the purpose of the analysis Outline the three level of analysis in Industry Dynamics: what does each level of analysis refer to? Outline the most relevant empirical regularities in Industry Dynamics: firm heterogeneity and its persistence; turbulence; firm size and growth; sectoral differences; structural dynamics E-tivities Multiple choice and open-ended questions on the different definitions and taxonomies of “industry”  Open-ended questions on the three level of analysis of Industry "dynamics" Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos  Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis Carlsson Bo (2016), “Industrial Dynamics: A Review of the Literature 1990-2009”, Industry and Innovation, 23 (1), 1-61.  Malerba F. and Orsenigo L. (1996), “The Dynamics and Evolution of Industries”, Industrial and Corporate Change, 5 (1), pp. 51-87.  Pavitt K. (1984), “Sectoral patterns of technological change: Towards a taxonomy and a theory”, Research Policy, pp. 343- 373.   Vivarelli M. (2013), “Is entrepreneurship necessarily good? Microeconomic evidence from developed and developing countries”, Industrial and Corporate Change, 22 (6), pp. 1453-1495. 

Week 2

Week 2- From market structure to industry dynamics (I)  Asynchronous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  Identify and explain the role of market size, technology and entry costs in the no. of firms active in an Industry Explain what “endogenous” and “exogenous” entry costs refer to E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the role of market size and technology for shaping the structure of an industry   Open-ended questions on the sources of endogenous entry costs  Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos  Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Cabral L. (2017), Introduction to Industrial Organization (2nd ed.): Chp. 4: “Competition, Equilibrium and Efficiency” Chp. 10: “Market structure” (paragraphs 10.1 and 10.2) 

Week 3

Week 3- From market structure to  industry dynamics (II) Asynchronous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  List and discuss the most relevant indexes of industrial structure (Ci and HHI)  Explain the role of entrepreneurial motivations in explaining firm entry in the market  E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the indexes of industrial structure (Ci and HHI);    Open-ended questions on the role of entrepreneurial motivations in explaining firm entry in the market  Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos  Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Vivarelli M. (2013), “Is entrepreneurship necessarily good? Microeconomic evidence from developed and developing countries”, Industrial and Corporate Change, 22 (6), pp. 1453-1495.

Week 4

Week 4- Firm growth (1) /4 “Firm growth: typologies, metrics and main theories” Asynchronous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  List and explain the main ways a firm may growth: organic and external growth  Discuss the most relevant theories on firm growth  Discuss Gibrat’s Law: statement, empirical evidence (“early”, “new literature”, “new new literature”), implications for policy  E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the organic and external growth  Multiple choice questions on methods to calculate a growth rate  Open-ended questions on Gibrat’s Law Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos  Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Coad, A. (2007), “Firm Growth: A survey”, Papers on Economics and Evolution, 0703, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Jena. (Sections 2, 3) Sutton, J. (1997), “Gibrat's Legacy”, Journal of Economic Literature, 1997, 35 (1), 40-59.  Geroski, P. (1999), “The growth of firms in theory and practice”, CEPR Discussion Paper n. 2092

Week 5

Week 5- Firm Growth (2)/4 “Firm growth: the role of firm age and firm productivity”  Asynchronous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  Explain the role of firm age and  productivity in firm growth; theory and empirical evidence   Outline the “Up or out dynamics” in modern economies: what does it refer to?    Discuss the “Up or out dynamics”, based on the evidence provided in some empirical papers  E-tivities Open-ended questions on the characteristics of firm growth rates distribution;   Multiple choice questions on the moderating role of firm age in the relationship between firm size and firm growth  Open-ended questions regarding the alternative channels through which firm age may affect firm growth  Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos  Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  OECD (2014), “The Dynamics of Employment Growth. New Evidence From 18 Countries”, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers, no. 14. Authors: Criscuolo, C. P. Gal and C. Menon. – Sections 2+3; 4+5  OECD (2016), “No Country for Young Firms? Start-up dynamics and National Policies”, OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Papers, no. 29. Authors: Calvino, F. Criscuolo, C. and C. Menon – Sections 2+3; 4+5  Haltiwanger, J., R. Jarmin and J. Miranda (2013), “Who Creates Jobs? Small Versus Large Versus Young,” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 95 (2), 347-361.  Barba Navaretti, G., Castellani, D. and F. Pieri (2014), “Age and firm growth: evidence from three European countries”, Small Business Economics, 43(4), 823-837. The Economist, “Big and clever”, December 2011  The Economist, “Small is not beautiful”, March 2012  The Economist, “Supersize me”, February 2015  The Economist, “The rise of superstars”, September 2016 

Week 6

Week 6- Firm growth (3) /4 “Firm growth: The role of innovation” Asynchronous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  Outline the most relevant features of innovation for firm growth: payback times and asymmetric returns  Introduce and discuss the main theoretical links between innovation and firm growth  Introduce the main empirical evidence on the relationship between product, process innovation and employment and sales growth  E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the characteristics of innovation  Multiple choice questions on the empirical evidence on the relationship between innovation and sales/employment growth  Open-ended questions regarding factors related to "desirability" of growth and factors that may be considered "disadvantages" of growth Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos  Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Geroski P. (1999), “The growth of firms in theory and practice”, CEPR Discussion Paper n. 2092

Week 7

Week 7- Firm growth (4) /4 “High-growth firms” Asynchronous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  Define and explain what a High-growth firm is, based on available definitions  Introduce and discuss the growth “path” (sequence of episodes) followed by high growth firms  Introduce and discuss the main stylized facts regarding those factors that go hand in hand with high growth episodes  E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the role that sectoral specificities play (if any) for High-growth firms  Multiple choice questions on growth path, followed on average, by high-growth firms  Open-ended questions regarding the anticipatory, concurrent and subsequent characteristics of high-growth firms with respect to their counterparts Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos  Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Moreno, F. and A. Coad (2015), “High-Growth Firms: Stylized Facts and Conflicting Results”, SPRU Working Paper Series, 2015-05  Hathaway, I. (2018) “High-growth firms and cities in the US: An analysis of the Inc. 5000” Hathaway, I. (2020) “The Myth of the Young Startup Founder”  OECD (2021) “Understanding Firm Growth, Helping SMEs scale up” 

Week 8

Week 8– Productivity (1)/3 “Productivity: definitions and from micro to macro”  Asynchronous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  Define what productivity does refer to and the most used definitions of it  Compute aggregate productivity levels and growth rates based on micro-level information; discuss what does the within-, between-firm, covariance and net entry components refer to  Outline and discuss the relevance of each of the components above, based on the available empirical evidence  E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the definitions of productivity  Multiple choice questions on the definition and relevance of the within-, between-firm, covariance and net entry components  Open-ended questions regarding the appropriate policies to sustain productivity growth, based on the available empirical evidence  Short essay – Homework 1 Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis Bravo-Biosca, A. (2011), “A look at business growth and contraction in Europe”, NESTA Working Paper No. 11/02, London.  Haltiwanger J. (2011), “Firm dynamics and productivity growth”, EIB Papers, 16 (1), 116-136.

Week 9

Week 9– Productivity (2)/3  “Productivity: determinants”  Asynchronous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:   Introduce and discuss the main determinants of productivity, based on the available empirical evidence  Outline the role of managerial practices in firm productivity, based on the empirical evidence in a cross-country perspective E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the role of managerial practices in firm productivity  Multiple choice questions on other determinants of productivity Open-ended questions regarding both "internal" and "external" drivers of productivity Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Bloom N. and Van Reenen J (2010), “Why Do Management Practices Differ across Firms and Countries?”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 24 (1), pp. 203-224 Syverson, C. (2011), “What determines productivity?”, Journal of Economic Literature, 49 (2), 326-365. (Sections 2 and 3) 

Week 10

Week 10– Productivity (3)/3 “Productivity and economic growth”  Asynchronous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  Introduce and discuss, from a theoretical point of view, the role of productivity in economic growth and clarify the channel through which productivity is key for a sustainable growth path of modern economies  Outline and discuss the relevance productivity growth and technological change for economic growth, based on the available empirical evidence   E-tivities Open-ended questions regarding the process of modern "growth": industrialization, capitalism, democracy Multiple choice questions on the role of productivity for economic growth, based on the neoclassical growth model   Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  van Ark B., O'Mahony M. and Timmer M. P. (2011), “The Productivity Gap between Europe and the United States: Trends and Causes”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22 (1), pp. 25-44  OECD (2015), The Future of Productivity, OECD Publishing, Paris. Chaps. 1, 2, 3, 4  Mckinsey Global Institute (2018), Solving the Productivity Puzzle: The Role of Demand and the Promise of  Digitization  Jona-Lasinio,  C.,  Schiavo,  S.,  &  Weyerstrass,  K.  (2019).  “How  to  revive  productivity growth?”, EconPol Policy Report, 3(13) 

Week 11

Week 11- ICTs, industrial revolutions and economic growth Asynchronous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:  Outline and discuss the impact of electronic-based ICTs on economic growth and the modern firm   E-tivities Open-ended questions regarding the the features of the inventions of the #IR2 and #IR3 Multiple choice questions on the impact of electronic-based ICTs on economic growth and the modern firm  Open-ended questions regarding the phenomenon of "Great Decoupling" Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis  Gordon, R. J. (2012), “Is U.S. economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the size headwinds”, NBER working paper, 18135  Brynjolfsson E. and A. McAfee (2015), Harvard Business Review, “The Great Decoupling: An Interview with Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee”, by Amy Bernstein and Anand Raman, June 2015.

Week 12

Week 12- Industry life cycle Asynchronous lesson By the end of this lesson students will be able to:   Introduce and discuss the Industry life cycle framework and the theoretical explanations provided for it    Outline the main empirical evidence regarding the Industry life cycle framework; what dimensions of an industry should be checked to confirm/reject the ILC framework?   E-tivities Multiple choice questions on the ILC theoretical framework Multiple choice questions on the dimensions of an industry that should be checked to confirm/reject the ILC framework Open-ended questions on the early entrants' advantage Short essay – Homework 2 Related Material Mandatory: to successfully pass the course Main instructor slides (full version) + Instructor's videos Optional: useful for learn more about the topic and to have ideas for Master thesis Utterback J. M. and Abernathy W. J. (1975), “A Dynamic Model of Process and Product Innovation”, OMEGA, 3 (6), 639-656. Suarez F. F. and J. M. Utterback (1995), “Dominant Designs and The Survival of Firms”, Strategic Management Journal, 16, 415-430.  Klepper, S. (1996), “Entry, exit, growth and innovation over the product life cycle”, American Economic Review, 86, pp. 562-583.  Helfat, C. E. (2015), “Vertical firm structure and industry evolution”, Industrial and Corporate Change, 24 (4), 803-818.