FINANCIAL MARKETS ECONOMICS

Emilio Barone

Instructional goals

This course covers forwards, futures, swaps, and options. By the end of the course, students will have good knowledge of how these products work, how they are used, how they are priced, and how financial institutions hedge their risks when they trade the products.

Prerequisites

Base knowledge of financial mathematics

Intended learning outcomes

Students will understand how derivatives markets work. For example: – how derivative traders generate liquidity, volatility, and profits/losses; – how derivative prices get determined reflecting information, news, investor behavior, etc. They will also understand: – the role of various market participants, including dealers, brokers, arbitrageurs, buy-side traders (institutions) and retail investors; – different order types, such as market versus limit orders, stop orders, etc.

Course Contents

The course starts by introducing the markets for futures, forward, and option contracts and by explaining the activities of hedgers, speculators, and arbitrageurs (Chapter 1). Then Chapter 2 explains the functioning of futures markets and discusses how long and short futures positions are used for hedging. Chapter 3 covers basis risk, hedge ratios, the use of stock index futures, and how to roll a hedge forward. After dealing with calculations involving interest rates, Chapter 4 includes a discussion of forward rates, FRAs, and theories of the term structure. The relationship between forward/futures prices and spot prices is proved in Chapter 5 by using simple arbitrage arguments. Chapter 7 covers the nature of swaps and how they are valued. Chapter 10 provides information on how options markets work. Chapter 11 outlines a number of relationships between a stock option price and the underlying stock price that do not involve any assumptions about the volatility of the stock’s price. Chapter 12 covers various ways in which traders can form portfolios of calls and puts to get interesting payoff patterns. Chapter 13 discusses simple one- and two-step binomial trees. It enables some of the key concepts in option valuation to be introduced. Material on the use of binomial trees for index options, currency options, and futures options is included in this chapter. Chapter15 covers a great deal of important material: the log-normality of stock prices, the calculation of volatility from historical data, risk-neutral valuation, the Black-Scholes-Merton option pricing formulas, implied volatilities, and the impact of dividends. Chapter 17 deals with options on stock indices and currencies. It shows how the Black-Scholes-Merton formulas can be modified to provide valuations of European call and put options on a stock paying a known dividend yield (stock indices and currencies are analogous to stocks paying known dividend yields). Chapter 18 deals with futures options. It is closely related to the previous chapter. The key point is that a futures price behaves like a stock paying a dividend yield at the risk-free rate. Chapter 19 covers the way in which traders working for financial institutions and market makers on the floor of an exchange hedge portfolio of derivatives.

Reference Books

HULL, John C., “Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives”, Pearson, April 2021 (11th ed.). HULL, John C., “Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives - Solutions Manual”, Pearson, April 2021 (11th ed.). ADDITIONAL RESOURCES HULL, John C., “Technical Notes”, instructor’s web page.

Teaching Methods

The material discussed in class follows the same order of the textbook. End-of-chapter problems are divided into two group: “Practice Questions” and “Further Questions”. Solutions to the Practice Questions are in “Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives - Solutions Manual”. Some problems are discussed in class, some others are just signaled to students. Sometimes, the instructor uses the PowerPoint slides available on John Hull’s web pages.

Assessment Method

The assessment method is based on a futures challenge and two written exams.

Thesis assignment criteria

The criterion rewards the students’ performance in the exams.

Week 1

Chapter 1. Introduction ... 1 1.1 Exchange-traded markets ... 2 1.2 Over-the-counter markets ... 3 1.3 Forward contracts ... 6 1.4 Futures contracts ... 8 1.5 Options ... 8 1.6 Types of traders... 11 1.7 Hedgers... 11 1.8 Speculators ... 14 1.9 Arbitrageurs... 16 1.10 Dangers ... 17

Week 2

Chapter 2. Futures markets and central counterparties ... 24 2.1 Background ... 24 2.2 Specification of a futures contract... 26 2.3 Convergence of futures price to spot price ... 28 2.4 The operation of margin accounts ... 29 2.5 OTC markets ... 32 2.6 Market quotes... 36 2.7 Delivery ... 38 2.8 Types of traders and types of orders... 39 2.11 Forward vs. futures contracts... 43 Chapter 3. Hedging strategies using futures... 49 3.1 Basic principles... 49 3.2 Arguments for and against hedging ... 51 3.3 Basis risk... 54 3.4 Cross hedging ... 58 3.5 Stock index futures... 62 3.6 Stack and roll ... 68

Week 3

Chapter 4. Interest rates ... 77 4.1 Types of rates ... 77 4.2 Swap rates... 79 4.3 The risk-free rate... 80 4.4 Measuring interest rates ... 81 4.5 Zero rates ... 84 4.6 Bond pricing ... 84 4.7 Determining zero rates ... 85 4.8 Forward rates ... 89 4.9 Forward rate agreements ... 92 4.10 Duration... 94 4.11 Convexity... 98 4.12 Theories of the term structure of interest rates ... 99

Week 4

Chapter 5. Determination of forward and futures prices... 107 5.1 Investment assets vs. consumption assets ... 107 5.2 Short selling ... 108 5.3 Assumptions and notation... 109 5.4 Forward price for an investment asset ... 110 5.5 Known income ... 113 5.6 Known yield... 115 5.7 Valuing forward contracts ... 115 5.8 Are forward prices and futures prices equal? ... 117 5.9 Futures prices of stock indices... 118 5.10 Forward and futures contracts on currencies ... 120 5.11 Futures on commodities ... 124 5.12 The cost of carry... 126 5.13 Delivery options... 127 5.14 Futures prices and expected future spot prices ... 127

Week 5

Chapter 6. Interest rate futures ... 135 6.1 Day count and quotation conventions ... 135 6.2 Treasury bond futures... 138 6.3 Eurodollar futures ... 143 6.4 Duration-based hedging strategies using futures ... 148 6.5 Hedging portfolios of assets and liabilities ... 150

Week 6

Chapter 7. Swaps... 155 7.1 Mechanics of interest rate swaps ... 156 7.2 Day count issues... 161 7.3 Confirmations ... 162 7.4 The comparative-advantage argument ... 162 7.5 Valuation of interest rate swaps... 165 7.6 How the value changes through time ... 168 7.7 Fixed-for-fixed currency swaps ... 169 7.8 Valuation of fixed-for-fixed currency swaps... 172 7.9 Other currency swaps ... 174 7.10 Credit risk ... 175 7.11 Credit default swaps... 176 7.12 Other types of swaps ... 177

Week 7

Chapter 10. Mechanics of options markets ... 209 10.1 Types of options... 209 10.2 Option positions ... 211 10.3 Underlying assets... 213 10.4 Specification of stock options ... 215 10.5 Trading ... 219 10.6 Commissions... 220 10.7 Margin requirements ... 221 10.8 The options clearing corporation... 222 Chapter 11. Properties of stock options... 231 11.1 Factors affecting option prices... 231 11.2 Assumptions and notation... 235 11.3 Upper and lower bounds for option prices ... 236 11.4 Put–call parity... 238 11.5 Calls on a non-dividend-paying stock... 241 11.6 Puts on a non-dividend-paying stock... 244 11.7 Effect of dividends ... 246

Week 8

Chapter 12. Trading strategies involving options... 252 12.1 Principal-protected notes ... 252 12.2 Trading an option and the underlying asset ... 254 12.3 Spreads... 256 12.4 Combinations ... 264 12.5 Other payoffs... 267 Chapter 13. Binomial trees ... 272 13.1 A one-step binomial model and a no-arbitrage argument ... 272 13.2 Risk-neutral valuation... 276 13.3 Two-step binomial trees ... 278 13.4 A put example ... 281 13.5 American options... 282

Week 9

Chapter 13. Binomial Trees ... 283 13.6 Delta... 283 13.7 Matching volatility with u and d ... 284 13.8 The binomial tree formulas... 286 13.9 Increasing the number of steps ... 286 13.10 Using DerivaGem ... 287 13.11 Options on other assets... 288 Chapter 15. The Black–Scholes–Merton model ... 319 15.1 Lognormal property of stock prices ... 320 15.2 The distribution of the rate of return ... 321 15.3 The expected return... 322 15.4 Volatility ... 323 15.5 The idea underlying the Black–Scholes–Merton differential equation ... 327 15.7 Risk-neutral valuation ... 332 15.8 Black–Scholes–Merton pricing formulas ... 333 15.9 Cumulative normal distribution function ... 336 15.11 Implied volatilities... 339 15.12 Dividends ... 341

Week 10

Chapter 17. Options on stock indices and currencies ... 365 17.1 Options on stock indices ... 365 17.2 Currency options ... 367 17.3 Options on stocks paying known dividend yields ... 370 17.4 Valuation of European stock index options... 372 17.5 Valuation of European currency options... 375 17.6 American options ... 376

Week 11

Chapter 18. Futures options and Black’s model ... 381 18.1 Nature of futures options ... 381 18.2 Reasons for the popularity of futures options ... 384 18.3 European spot and futures options ... 384 18.4 Put–call parity ... 385 18.5 Bounds for futures options... 386 18.6 Drift of a futures prices in a risk-neutral world ... 387 18.7 Black’s model for valuing futures options ... 388 18.8 Using Black’s model instead of Black–Scholes–Merton ... 389 18.9 Valuation of futures options using binomial trees... 390 18.10 American futures options vs. American spot options ... 392 18.11 Futures-style options... 393

Week 12

Chapter 19. The Greek letters ... 397 19.1 Illustration ... 397 19.2 Naked and covered positions ... 398 19.3 Greek letter calculation ... 400 19.4 Delta hedging ... 401 19.5 Theta ... 407 19.6 Gamma ... 409 19.7 Relationship between delta, theta, and gamma ... 413 19.8 Vega ... 414 19.9 Rho ... 416 19.10 The realities of hedging... 417 19.11 Scenario analysis ... 417 19.12 Extension of formulas... 419 19.13 Portfolio insurance ... 421 19.14 Stock market volatility ... 423