MANAGING THE ENERGY TRANSITION

Simone Mori, Francesco Venturini

Instructional goals

The course will explore economic theory and empirical perspectives related to the energy sector. The course is split into two separate parts. The first one will examine and compare fundamentals of various energy sources, with focus on the economics and energy market dynamics in light of energy transition and climate change environment. It will analyze how energy markets characteristics affect economic efficiency goals, will discuss approaches to evaluating the welfare effects and policies that are used to address market failures, including taxation, price regulation and deregulation, energy efficiency and control of emissions locally and on global level. The second part will be more empirical and business-oriented. It will explore the impact of clean technologies on the business landscape. It will start from the analysis of the growing global energy needs, identify a real case of an emerging energy-intensive technology (AI), delve into the renewable energy sector to understand the solutions actually available and the technological challenges, explain the importance of the energy transition as an element of competitiveness and innovation, along with analyses of the economic implications and risks associated with these transformations. The course will offer a deep dive into Generative AI as an example of an emerging technology with strong energy implications, for which we discuss practical implementations of the in-class theory. In this session there will be the opportunity to focus on the validation of the business model for companies operating in the energy transition space. The course aims at introducing students to current understanding and analysis of basic economic and business concepts that underlie energy all throughout its value chain, from production to end-uses, its geopolitical aspects and energy macro trends. Students should be enabled to understand how local, regional and global institutions affect energy markets. Become familiar with contemporary public policy issues related to energy sector. Comprehend fundamental concepts of the economics of natural resources. Apply the concepts learnt to the analysis of specific energy industries and policy questions. Students should be able to undertake their own analysis of energy issues.

Prerequisites

It is assumed that all students have knowledge of basic macro and micro-economic principles.

Intended learning outcomes

• Knowledge and understanding: Understanding of basic economic and business concepts of energy sector value chain, its geopolitical aspects and energy macrotrends in light of energy transition and climate change environment. • Applying knowledge and understanding: Students attending this course are expected to apply the concepts learnt to analysis of specific energy industries and energy policy questions with focus on economic and business aspects. Students should be able to undertake their own analysis on energy issues understanding critical aspects and different/opposing positions and interests in light of energy and climate policies. • Making judgements: Students attending this course are expected to i) demonstrate critical thinking skills, identify key concepts in readings and describe the steps of an argument; ii) critically evaluate common readings in discussions with lecturers and fellow students. • Communication skills: Students will be evaluated based on their stance, energy, confidence and appropriate use of scientific language. • Learning skills: Students will be evaluated based on their ability to understand and apply all acquired knowledge to class and team discussions

Course Contents

Overview of the energy sector, Energy and Economic Growth, Geopolitics of energy, Energy mix and technologies, Energy Markets Fundamentals, Energy & sustainability & climate change, Carbon Markets, Energy Transition technologies, Electrification

Reference Books

There is no assigned textbook for the course. Lectures will be supported by presentations to be handed out before each class. Further reading material will be indicated during the course.

Teaching Methods

The course will consist of traditional lectures, cases analyses and meetings with the participation of energy industries experts on some of the topics included in the course program.

Assessment Method

For attending students (will be considered those that will confirm the participation on the survey on Luiss learn page): the evaluation is based on the combination of 4 different assessments: 1. Classroom participation: active participation during the lessons, Q&A 2. Exercises, case studies and papers analysis: resolution of tests and comment to the articles provided during the course 3. Project Work: research-project based on a subject agreed with the teacher during the first 4 weeks of the course, prepared in a group of 2/3 person (approximately 10-15 pages of word document or ppt presentation). The evaluation criteria are: a. Exposition of the Executive Summary (15%) b. Deepness of the analysis of the specific topics c. Quality of the presentation (10%) d. Critical thinking / personal view (25%) e. References & sources (15%) The PW should be completed and sent to the Professor at least 1 week before the final exam. The executive summary is based on a PPT presentation synthesizing the main highlights of the PW. Students present the executive summary (5-10 minutes) in the last weeks of the course during lesson time (volunteers are more than welcome). 4. Final exam: comment on an article and answer to related questions The assessment related to the participation and the exercises/case studies/paper analysis carried out during the lessons will be valid only for the winter exam session. For not attending students: the evaluation is based on the combination of 2 different assessments: 1. Project Work: research-project based on a subject agreed with the teacher, prepared in a group of 2/3 person or individually (approximately 10-15 pages of word document or ppt presentation). The evaluation criteria are: a. Exposition of the Executive Summary b. Deepness of the analysis of the specific topics c. Quality of the presentation d. Critical thinking / personal view e. References & sources The PW should be completed and sent to the Professor at least 1 week before the final exam. The Executive summary is based on a ppt presentation synthesizing the main highlights of the project work. Students present the executive summary (5-10 minutes) in the same day of the exam (on a specific time slot agreed with the Professor). 2. Final written exam (70%): Comment on an article and answer to related questions

Thesis assignment criteria

Involvement during the lectures, exam result, interest on topics addressed during the course.

Week 1

Fundamental concepts of Energy, Long term trends in the energy mix, Geopolitics: energy and global political challenges, European Energy and Climate Policies, Energy & sustainability and climate change: overview on environmental impacts on planet, the climate challenge economic theory for environmental policies.

Week 2

New Technologies in the energy sector. Technology perspectives investments and future trends evolution of support schemes and auctions worldwide. RES impact – need of additional flexibility. Storage technologies International climate policies - from Kyoto to Paris. Framework Beyond 2020: Council conclusions on 2030 framework

Week 3

Electricity Sector Power generation and wholesale: introduction to auctions theory, energy markets design and ancillary services. Monitoring of market competition, capacity payments/markets, technical basics of power generation, investments in power generation, the Italian power market, day ahead market, intraday market, energy-only market vs capacity markets, LCOE

Week 4

Natural gas sector structure and dynamics: industry organization production and import networks, storage and LNG terminals. Unconventional gas source: shale gas and the environment. The impact of gas crisis in the EU energy sector. Biofuels. Hydrogen: produce, storage and transport of hydrogen, main application per sector, hydrogen in transportation.

Week 5

Carbon markets: carbon pricing, the EU emission trading system, the Carbon Boarder Adjustment Mechanism Decarbonization of transport sector: transport emissions and decarbonizing transport initiative. Guest Speaker “Climate Policies in times of crisis”

Week 6

Key moments in tracking cycles, innovation and change: - Market view of technology lifecycles - Secondary innovations - PEARLS framework - Exuberance, speculation and bubbles Introduction of the concept of Innovation, how AI fits in the framework as an emerging technology

Week 7

AI Believers and Nay-Sayers - History and key concepts of AI and GenAI - Key factors behind the AI surge - GenAI Technology Stacks - GenAI Value Chains - GenAI Market Ecosystem - GenAI Risks Explanation of what is AI and why it’s relevant. Guest Speaker: The quest for the AI killer application - Risks & opportunities

Week 8

The Growing Energy Footprint of Digital Technology: - AI Technology Stack and Value Chain - Datacenter Typologies - Energy Impacts of AI - Constraints and Forecasts - Power Demand Outlook

Week 9

The Economics of Electrification – Why CAPEX Matters - Electrification and the energy mix - Why electrify an economy? - Key technologies for electrification - Europe and US electrification processes

Week 10

Emerging new business models of the energy transition - faster power - reliable power - cleaner power - cheaper power

Week 11

Emerging new business models of the energy transition 2/2 - faster power - reliable power - cleaner power - cheaper power Guest speaker: The quest for new Megatrends and Business Opportunities

Week 12

Rehearsal of Projects