ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES

Vittorio Carlei

Instructional goals

The course aims to provide students with the conceptual coordinates and practical tools to navigate the complexity of decision-making processes in the era of Artificial Intelligence. The primary objective is not to train IT technicians, but rather aware managers and decision-makers, capable of designing effective, ethical, and regenerative human-machine systems. Through an interdisciplinary path that combines philosophy, cognitive economics, and technological analysis, the course aims to develop the ability to distinguish tasks that can be delegated to automation (the "mechanical") from those that require human judgment (the "free"). Students will learn to break down the decision-making process into its constituent phases, identifying cognitive biases and understanding how predictive and generative AI can intervene to reduce uncertainty or expand options. Finally, the course aims to cultivate uniquely human higher faculties (primary creativity, ethical judgment, embodied intuition, and metacognition), transforming AI from a potential substitutive threat into a tool of emancipation and augmentation for the manager of the future, understood as an "architect of decision-making systems".

Prerequisites

There are no mandatory formal prerequisites. However, for fruitful participation in the course and a better understanding of the contents, a basic knowledge of the principles of Business Management and the fundamentals of Organizational Behavior is considered indispensable. Preliminary familiarity with the basic concepts of descriptive statistics and probability is also strongly recommended, as it is useful for understanding the operating mechanisms of predictive and generative Artificial Intelligence. No prior computer programming (coding) or data science skills are required, as the technological approach will be addressed from a managerial and strategic perspective.

Intended learning outcomes

Upon completion of the course, in accordance with the Dublin Descriptors, the student will be able to: 1. Knowledge and understanding: recognize and describe the theoretical foundations of cognitive economics, the limits of human rationality (cognitive biases), and the statistical operating principles of Artificial Intelligence (predictive and generative), clearly distinguishing between "mechanical" tasks and "free" faculties. 2. Applying knowledge and understanding: analyze and break down a real corporate decision-making process into its constituent phases, applying the "Mechanical vs. Free" framework and the "Centaur Matrix" to identify which phases to delegate to automation and which to reserve for human judgment. 3. Making judgements: critically evaluate the ethical, social, and organizational implications of AI adoption, consciously choosing between scenarios of competition (substitution) and scenarios of complementarity (augmentation), and recognizing algorithmic biases. 4. Communication skills: argue and justify their choices in redesigning decision-making processes, effectively communicating the strategic vision of human-machine integration to both technical and managerial stakeholders. 5. Learning skills: develop a metacognitive approach and "Socratic ignorance" that allows for continuous updating of skills in a rapidly evolving technological landscape, maintaining the centrality of the human factor.

Course Contents

The course is structured into three main thematic blocks, designed to guide the student from theory to managerial practice. Block 1 - The Foundations: From Thought to Decision (Lectures 1-5). Explores the philosophical and economic bases of human decision-making. Introduces the Paradox of Freedom (Spinoza), the history of cognitive externalization, the limits of human rationality (cognitive biases according to Kahneman and Tversky), and the architecture of decision-making (Simon, Hidalgo). Defines the fundamental framework distinguishing the "Mechanical" (computable and replicable) from the "Free" (uniquely human), using the Cynefin Framework (Snowden). Block 2 - The New Toolbox: Mastering the "Mechanical" (Lectures 6-11). Analyzes AI tools as levers to automate mechanical tasks. Demystifies Machine Learning and Neural Networks (Mitchell), comparing Predictive AI (uncertainty reduction) with Generative AI (exploration of possibilities through LLMs). Introduces the figure of the manager as an "architect of decision-making systems" and includes a practical laboratory on Prompt Engineering. Block 3 - The Human Factor: Cultivating the "Free" (Lectures 12-18). Focuses on faculties that AI cannot replicate: primary creativity, ethical judgment (qualia), embodied intuition, and metacognition. Analyzes the two future scenarios (Competition vs. Complementarity) and guides students in redesigning real decision-making processes, culminating in the "Centaur Manifesto" for a regenerative economy.

Reference Books

Mandatory texts for all students: 1. Lecture notes, slides, and reasoned guides provided by the professor during the course (available on the University e-learning platform). 2. Mitchell, M. (2019). Artificial Intelligence: A Guide for Thinking Humans. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. 3. Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Recommended texts for further reading (optional choice): 4. Hidalgo, C. (2015). Why Information Grows: The Evolution of Order, from Atoms to Economies. Basic Books. 5. Acemoglu, D. & Johnson, S. (2023). Power and Progress: Our Thousand-Year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity. PublicAffairs. 6. Kasparov, G. (2017). Deep Thinking: Where Machine Intelligence Ends and Human Creativity Begins. PublicAffairs.

Teaching Methods

Lectures and case studies. The course adopts a blended teaching approach that alternates theoretical lectures with moments of active and laboratory teaching. Lectures are supported by visual presentations (slides) and reasoned guides that deepen the philosophical, economic, and technological concepts covered. Real case studies are used to illustrate the practical application of decision-making frameworks. Two practical laboratories are planned: the first dedicated to Prompt Engineering and direct interaction with Generative AI models (ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude), the second focused on the collaborative mapping and redesign of corporate decision-making processes. Classroom discussion, critical debate, and group activities are constantly encouraged to stimulate students' independent judgment and communication skills.

Assessment Method

Oral examination. The assessment of learning is divided into two distinct moments. Final phase: traditional oral exam, focused on verifying the understanding of fundamental theoretical concepts, analytical frameworks (Mechanical vs. Free, Centaur Matrix, Cynefin), and critical discussion of mandatory reference texts. The evaluation will consider the ability to connect the different course themes and to argue with independent judgment. Optional mid-term assessment: evaluation based on the creation and presentation of a group Project Work (1-3 people). The project consists of redesigning a real decision-making process, using an AI tool of choice to automate the "mechanical" parts and redefine the role of the "free" human contribution. The oral exam will consist of the discussion of the project, evaluating: the theoretical coherence of design choices, the quality of human-machine delegation, the critical mastery of the AI tools used, and the originality of the proposed solution.

Thesis assignment criteria

None in particular. The assignment of the final dissertation (thesis) in this discipline requires a strong interest in the frontier issues between management, technology, and ethics. Willingness to delve into international scientific literature (mostly in English) on the impact of Artificial Intelligence in organizations and decision-making processes is required. It is preferable, but not strictly mandatory, to have passed the exam with an excellent grade and to have demonstrated strong analytical and critical skills during the course, particularly in the drafting of the Project Work. Thesis topics may range from the analysis of corporate AI implementation cases, to the study of algorithmic biases in selection processes, up to the theoretical design of new "centaur" organizational models (human-machine hybrids).

Week 1

Lecture 1 - Introduction: The Paradox of Freedom. Course presentation and conceptual framework. The concept of "Free Necessity" in Spinoza as a philosophical key to understanding the relationship between determinism and freedom in the age of automation. Information overload and the distinction between decisional speed and decisional wisdom. Introduction to the "Mechanical vs. Free" framework that will accompany the entire course. Lecture 2 - A Brief History of Cognitive Externalization. Artificial Intelligence as a milestone in a millennial trajectory: from language to writing, from printing to computers. Man as a "technological animal" who has always delegated cognitive functions to his artifacts. The birth of Cognitive Economics as a discipline studying the relationship between mind, technology, and decision. Reference material: Lecture notes (Lectures 1-2); Mitchell (2019), ch. 1; Berlin, I. (1958), Two Concepts of Liberty.

Week 2

Lecture 3 - The Limits of Human Rationality. Systematic analysis of cognitive biases according to the research program of Kahneman and Tversky. The brain as an energy optimizer: why mental shortcuts (heuristics) are adaptive but fallible. System 1 (intuitive, fast, automatic) and System 2 (reflective, slow, deliberate). Why "rational" decisions are an exception rather than the rule. Implications for management. Lecture 4 - The Architecture of Decision-Making. Breakdown of the decision-making process according to Herbert Simon's model: perception, analysis, option generation, choice, action, and feedback. Where cognitive biases lurk in each phase. The role of information and entropy in economic value creation according to César Hidalgo. Decision-making as a "neghentropic engine". Reference material: Lecture notes (Lectures 3-4); Kahneman (2011), chs. 1-9; Hidalgo (2015), chs. 1-3.

Week 3

Lecture 5 - Defining the "Mechanical". What does "computable" mean? Algorithms, procedures, and replicable tasks in the corporate context. The fundamental difference between complication (many parts, linear interactions) and complexity (non-linear interactions, emergence) through Dave Snowden's Cynefin Framework. Examples of mechanical processes in business: from invoicing to quality control. Lecture 6 - Demystifying AI: Machine Learning and Neural Networks. What they are and how they work, with an intuitive and non-technical explanation. The "barrier of meaning" according to Melanie Mitchell: AI processes statistical patterns, it does not understand meanings. AI as large-scale statistics. The difference between strong AI (hypothetical) and weak AI (real). Brief history of neural networks: from the Perceptron to Deep Learning. Reference material: Lecture notes (Lectures 5-6); Mitchell (2019), chs. 2-5; Snowden, D. & Boone, M. (2007), A Leader's Framework for Decision Making, Harvard Business Review.

Week 4

Lecture 7 - Predictive AI: Reducing Uncertainty. Classification, regression, and clustering as tools for transforming data into predictions. Practical management applications: from credit scoring to predictive maintenance, from customer segmentation to demand forecasting. Limits and risks: prediction error, overfitting, Taleb's "black swans," and the problem of induction. Lecture 8 - Generative AI: Exploring Possibilities. How Large Language Models (LLMs) work: from the Transformer architecture to the attention mechanism. The concept of "latent space" as a universe of combinatorial possibilities. Applications: text, code, image, and strategic scenario generation. The phenomenon of "hallucinations" and its risks for the decision-maker. Reference material: Lecture notes (Lectures 7-8); Mitchell (2019), chs. 6-10; Agrawal, A. et al. (2018), Prediction Machines, Harvard Business Review Press.

Week 5

Lecture 9 - Predictive vs. Generative AI: A Comparison. Two tools for two different purposes: reducing uncertainty (predictive) vs. increasing options (generative). Analysis of complementary use cases in management. The "Centaur Matrix": an operational tool for mapping which phases of the decision-making process to delegate to which type of AI and which to reserve for human judgment. Lecture 10 - The Manager as Architect of Decision-Making Systems. The new managerial role: no longer a "hero decision-maker" who decides alone, but a designer of hybrid human-machine processes. How to define performance metrics, supervise AI, manage feedback loops, and orchestrate the interaction between human and artificial intelligence. The concept of "Centaur Manager" (Saghafian & Idan, 2024). Reference material: Lecture notes (Lectures 9-10); Kasparov (2017), chs. 8-11; Saghafian, S. & Idan, A. (2024), The Centaur Manager, Harvard Data Science Review.

Week 6

Lecture 11 - Laboratory 1: Prompt Engineering and Interaction with LLMs. Practical exercise on the use of Generative AI tools (ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude). Prompting techniques: zero-shot, few-shot, chain of thought, role prompting. How to iterate and refine AI output to obtain usable results in the decision-making context. Critical analysis of limitations: hallucinations, embedded biases, prompt dependency. Lecture 12 - Higher Faculties: Beyond Calculation. Introduction to Block 3 of the course. Presentation of the four non-delegable capabilities to AI: primary creativity (generating the radically new), ethical judgment (evaluating right and wrong), embodied intuition (tacit knowledge of the body), and self-knowledge (metacognition). Damasio's somatic marker as a bridge between body and decision. Reference material: Lecture notes (Lectures 11-12); Mitchell (2019), ch. 12; Damasio, A. (1994), Descartes' Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain.

Week 7

Lecture 13 - Ethical Judgment and "Qualia". AI's structural inability to subjectively "feel" (the philosophical problem of qualia). The responsibility of the final choice as an irreducibly human prerogative. Ethical dilemmas in the age of AI: from the Trolley Problem to algorithmic biases in personnel selection and credit scoring. Hans Jonas's principle of responsibility applied to technology. Lecture 14 - Primary Creativity and Imagination. Distinction between combinatorial creativity (what AI can do: recombining existing patterns) and primary creativity (what only humans can do: imagining the radically new). The role of imagination in defining new purposes, new markets, and new possible worlds. Economics as "crystallization of imagination" (Hidalgo). Reference material: Lecture notes (Lectures 13-14); Hidalgo (2015), chs. 6-9; Vallor, S. (2016), Technology and the Virtues: A Philosophical Guide to a Future Worth Wanting.

Week 8

Lecture 15 - Embodied Intuition and Relational Goods. The intelligence of the body and lived experience: tacit knowledge (Polanyi) as a form of non-codifiable knowledge. The importance of context and interpersonal relationships in the decision-making process. The economy of relational goods (care, trust, community) as a non-automatable frontier and a sustainable competitive advantage. Lecture 16 - Laboratory 2: Mapping a Decision-Making Process. Students, organized in working groups (1-3 people), choose a real decision-making process from their professional or academic context. They begin mapping it into its constituent phases, identifying the "as-is" state and applying the "Mechanical vs. Free" framework for an initial "to-be" redesign draft. Reference material: Lecture notes (Lectures 15-16); Polanyi, M. (1966), The Tacit Dimension; Acemoglu & Johnson (2023), chs. 7-10.

Week 9

Lecture 17 - The Two Scenarios: Competition vs. Complementarity. Scenario A (Competition): man competing with AI on the mechanical terrain, with risks of alienation, deskilling, and loss of meaning. Scenario B (Complementarity): man emancipating himself thanks to AI, focusing on the "free" and building a regenerative economy based on relational goods. Critical analysis of the organizational and institutional conditions for realizing Scenario B. Lecture 18 - Final Presentation and Conclusions. Summary of the course journey. AI as a mirror that forces us to rediscover what it means to be human. The "Centaur Manifesto": five principles for an economy of complementarity. Guided final discussion. Preparation for the Project Work and detailed explanation of evaluation criteria. Reference material: Lecture notes (Lectures 17-18); Acemoglu & Johnson (2023), chs. 11-14; Kasparov (2017), ch. 12; Vallor (2016), ch. 10.

Week 10

Week dedicated to the development of the Project Work (for attending students) and individual study (for non-attending students). Attending students work in groups on the redesign of a real decision-making process, applying the frameworks learned during the course: "As-is" process mapping, application of the Centaur Matrix, delegation of the "Mechanical" to AI tools, and enhancement of the "Free" (human judgment). The professor is available for review, tutoring, and feedback sessions on projects under development. Reference material: All course lecture notes; mandatory and recommended texts for thematic consultation.

Week 11

Continuation of the Project Work development and preparation of the final output (presentation or report). Collegial review sessions among groups with peer-to-peer feedback. For non-attending students: Q&A sessions, theoretical clarifications, and simulations of critical discussion on reference texts in preparation for the final oral exam. Reference material: All course lecture notes; mandatory texts for oral exam preparation.

Week 12

Submission of Project Works. Presentation sessions of group works (for attending students) with plenary discussion and professor feedback. Final evaluation of the ability to apply theoretical concepts to the design of hybrid human-machine decision-making systems. Evaluation criteria: theoretical coherence of design choices, quality of human-AI delegation, critical mastery of tools used, originality of the proposed solution. Reference material: All course lecture notes; Project Work evaluation criteria (distributed in Lecture 18).