INDUSTRIAL DYNAMIC

Fabrizio Pompei

Instructional goals

This class introduces advanced management students to selected contributions in modern economic theory that deals with market structure and industrial dynamics. Seminal papers will be presented and discussed during classes.

Prerequisites

Basic principles of Industrial Economics and Statistics are required. In more detail, Industrial Economics: i) consumer and firm theory; ii) competition and efficiency; iii) monopoly and regulation; iv) oligopoly competition; v) collusion; vi) market structure. Textbook Cabral L. (2017) Introduction to Industrial Organization, MIT Press Statistics: i) sample and population; ii) variables grouped data and histograms; iii) measures of central tendency; iv) measures of dispersion; v) correlation. Textbook Newbold P., Carlson, W.L., Thorne, B., Statistics, Chapter 2.

Intended learning outcomes

1) Knowledge and Understanding: At the end of the course students will be able : - to understand market structure and dynamics of the main industries. - to understand the firm behaviour and its evolution over time. - to understand the specific characteristics of the Italian industrial system (industrial districts, networks and social innovation) - to develop capabilities for the strategic analysis. 2) Applying knowledge and understanding: The student will be able: - to perform empirical analyses on structure and evolution of industries, on firm heterogeneities within and between industrie ; - to perform policy evaluation studies of industrial policies and regulation; These goals will be achieved by means of class exercises and work group evaluation. 3) Making judgements: We expect students to be able to make judgements upon the validity and effectiveness of the industrial policies. 4) Communications Skills Through classes exercises and work group presentations the students will be able to communicate their ideas, proposals, analysis and critical reasoning. 5) Learning skills The complementarity between the theoretical knowledge and the know-how students accumulate during the class excercises and work group allow them to acquire those dynamic capabilities useful for their career.

Course Contents

This course deals with market structure and industrial dynamics. Gibrat Law, market structure, determinants of entry and exit, and industry life-cycle will be discussed in the first part of the course. Afterwards, we turn to entrepreneurial theories, sectoral patterns of innovation and fourth industrial revolution technologies. Many of these topics will be complemented by class exercises.

Reference Books

Dinamiche Industriali di Francesca Lotti e Valentina Meliciani, Il Mulino editore. Other material used during the lectures and summarized in the slides Reading material indicated below is for deepening your knowledge but it is not compulsory

Teaching Methods

The course consists of lectures, class discussion, exercises, and on group-works that will be presented in class at the end of the course.

Assessment Method

The overall assessment for students attending class combines an evaluation of group work which accounts for the 33% of the final grade and a final oral exame accounting for 67% . Group Work (33%): the discussion will start from the tenth week on. Each group has 30 minutes for presentation and each student has to prepare 3 slides. Both collective work and individual work will be evaluated (20% and 13%, respectively). Oral exam (67%), 3 questions. The exam will last about 15 minutes. All grades will be on a range from 0 to 30 to which the weights above apply. For non-attending students the rules are as follows: Oral exam (100%) 4 questions, 30 minutes in total (range 0-30) The program will be: the whole course program The book “La nuova rivoluzione delle macchine” di Andrew McAfee e Erik Brynjolfsson, 2017, Feltrinelli. The paper Economia Digitale, Riccardo Cristadoro, Banca d’Italia, (2019), downloadable at https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/focus-on/2019/FocusOn_1_2019.pdf

Thesis assignment criteria

In general, an interest in the subject. From a master's degree student we expect: 1) ability to propose a thesis that can be traced back to the topics or the tools presented during the course; 2) ability to conduct quantitative analyses; 3) initiative and critical thinking when using data and bibliographical resources.

Week 1

Session 1 Market Structure (section 1) Session 2 Market Structure (section 2) References: J.Sutton (2006), Market Structure: Theory and Evidence, Handbook of Industrial Organization Rossi-Hansberg, E., and M. L. J. Wright,(2007). "Establishment Size Dynamics in the Aggregate Economy." American Economic Review, 97(5): 1639-1666.

Week 2

Session 1 Firm size distribution and the Gibrat Law (section 1) References: Rossi-Hansberg, E., and M. L. J. Wright,(2007). "Establishment Size Dynamics in the Aggregate Economy." American Economic Review, 97(5): 1639-1666. * Lotti, F., E. Santarelli and M. Vivarelli, (2003). "Does Gibrat's Law hold among young, small firms?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 213-235, August. * D.B. Audretsch& L. Klomp& E. Santarelli& A.R. Thurik, 2004. "Gibrat's Law: Are the Services Different?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 301-324, 05. *Lotti, F., E. Santarelli and M. Vivarelli (2009), Defending Gibrat’s Law as a long-run regularity, Small Business Economic Journal, 32, 31-44. Session 2: Data analysis exercise on market structure indicators

Week 3

Session 1 Profit-driven entry theory References: *Capitolo 12, Cabral, Economia Industriale (2018), Entrata, uscita e comportamento strategico *Garavaglia,(2014), Analisi delle determinanti dell’entrata di nuove imprese nei settori industriali: una rassegna, LIUC Papers n. 144 Session 2 Data analysis exercise on the Gibrat Law

Week 4

Session 1 Innovation and Industry life-cycle: the Klepper’s model. References * Klepper, S, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-83, June. Session 2 Data analysis exercises on business demography

Week 5

Session 1 Industries and shakeout theory References: Klepper, S. & Miller, J. H., 1995. "Entry, exit, and shakeouts in the United States in new manufactured products," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 567-591, December. Session 2 Data analysis exercises on industry life-cycle

Week 6

Session 1 Sectoral patterns of innovation: the Pavitt (1984) and Audescht (1995) References: *Pavitt, K. (1984), ‘Sectoral Patterns of Technical Change: Towards a Taxonomy and a Theory’, Research Policy, vol. 13, pp. 343–73. *Audretsch, D. B. (1995). The propensity to exit and innovation. Review of Industrial Organization, 10(5), 589-605. Session 2 Applications of Pavitt's Taxonomy

Week 7

Session 1 Session 1 on campus Schumpeterian patterns of innovation of Malerba and Orsenigo References: *Malerba, Franco & Orsenigo, Luigi, 2014. Regimi tecnologici e pattern settoriali di innovazione, in Economia dell’innovazione, a cura di F. Session 2 New Tecologies and structural change: The 4th Industrial Revolution References: *McAfee, Andrew and Erik Brynjolfsson. "Big Data: The Management Revolution". Harvard Business Review, October 2012. *Brynjolfsson, Erik, and Andrew McAfee, "Winning the Race with Ever-Smarter Machines" MIT Sloan Management Review, Winter 2012 *Gordon, Robert (2012). 'Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds', CEPR Policy Insight No 63.

Week 8

Session 1 Structural change, innovation, labour and inequalities. References * Vivarelli M. (2014) Innovation, Employment and Skills in Advanced and Developing Countries: A Survey of Economic Literature, Journal of Economic Issues *Acemoglu, D. & Autor, D. (2012). What does human capital do? A review of Goldin and Katz's The race between education and technology. Journal of Economic Literature, 50(2), 426-63. *Arntz, M., T. Gregory, and U. Zierahn (2016). The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 189, OECD Publishing. *Frey, C. B. and Osborne, M. A. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerization? Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 114:254–280. Session 2 Data analysis exercise on new industrial robots and inequalities (Section 1)

Week 9

Session 1 Concurrent technologies and network effects References: *Lissoni, F. (2014) “Tecnologie concorrenti e rendimenti crescenti da adozione” in Economia dell’innovazione, a cura di F. Malerba. Session 2 Data analysis exercise on new industrial robots and inequalities (Section 2)

Week 10

Session 1 Entrepreneurial Theory (section 1) References: *Lazear, E. (2005), "Entrepreneurship," Journal of Labor Economics, 23:4. p649. *Ardagna, S. and Lusardi, A., 2008. Explaining international differences in entrepreneurship: The role of individual characteristics and regulatory constraints (No. w14012). National Bureau of Economic Research. Session 2 Project Work presentations

Week 11

Session 1 Entrepreneurial Theory (section 2) References: Fritsch, M. and Mueller, P., 2008. The effect of new business formation on regional development over time: the case of Germany. Small Business Economics, 30(1), pp.15-29. Fritsch, M. and Schroeter, A., 2011. Does quality make a difference? Employment effects of high-and low-quality start-ups. Session 2 Project Work presentations

Week 12

Session 1 Green investments and industrial policies References Kalantzis, F., H. Schweiger, and S. Dominguez. 2022. “Green Investment by Firms: Finance or Climate Driven?” Policy Research Working Paper 10064, World Bank. Damiani, M., Pompei, F., & Ricci, A. (2025). Green Transition and Industrial Relations at the Workplace: Evidence From Italian Firms. British Journal of Industrial Relations, 63(2), 323-340. Session 2 Project Work presentations