INDUSTRIAL DYNAMIC

Valentina Meliciani, Marco Cucculelli

Instructional goals

This class introduces advanced management students to selected contributions in modern economic theory that deals with market structure and industrial dynamics. Seminal papers will be presented and discussed during classes.

Prerequisites

Basic principles of Industrial Economics and Statistics are required. In more detail, Industrial Economics: i) consumer and firm theory; ii) competition and efficiency; iii) monopoly and regulation; iv) oligopoly competition; v) collusion; vi) market structure. Textbook Cabral L. (2017) Introduction to Industrial Organization, MIT Press Statistics: i) sample and population; ii) variables grouped data and histograms; iii) measures of central tendency; iv) measures of dispersion; v) correlation. Textbook Newbold P., Carlson, W.L., Thorne, B., Statistics, Chapter 2.

Intended learning outcomes

1) Knowledge and Understanding: At the end of the course students will be able : - to understand market structure and dynamics of the main industries. - to understand the firm behaviour and its evolution over time. - to understand the framework for European industrial policies - to develop capabilities for the strategic analysis. 2) Applying knowledge and understanding: The student will be able: - to perform empirical analyses on structure and evolution of industries, on firm heterogeneities within and between industrie ; - to perform policy evaluation studies of industrial policies and regulation; These goals will be achieved by means of class exercises and work group evaluation. 3) Making judgements: We expect students to be able to make judgements upon the validity and effectiveness of the industrial policies. 4) Communications Skills Through classes exercises and work group presentations the students will be able to communicate their ideas, proposals, analysis and critical reasoning. 5) Learning skills The complementarity between the theoretical knowledge and the know-how students accumulate during the class excercises and work group allow them to acquire those dynamic capabilities useful for their career.

Course Contents

This course deals with market structure and industrial dynamics. Gibrat Law, market structure, determinants of entry and exit, and industry life-cycle will be discussed in the first part of the course. Afterwards, we turn to entrepreneurial theories, and European industrial policy in a fragmented geopolitical scenario. Many of these topics will be complemented by class exercises.

Reference Books

Dinamiche Industriali di Francesca Lotti e Valentina Meliciani, Il Mulino editore. Other material used during the lectures and summarized in the slides Reading material indicated below is for deepening your knowledge but it is not compulsory

Teaching Methods

Lectures, data exercises, class discussions, group work presentations.

Assessment Method

1/3 group work 2/3 oral examination

Thesis assignment criteria

Interest for the course Coherence between the proposal and the content of the course

Week 1

Firm size distribution and Gibrat law Break out Methodologies, data and case studies for group work (interactive session with evaluation) References: Rossi-Hansberg, E., and M. L. J. Wright,(2007). "Establishment Size Dynamics in the Aggregate Economy." American Economic Review, 97(5): 1639-1666. * Lotti, F., E. Santarelli and M. Vivarelli, (2003). "Does Gibrat's Law hold among young, small firms?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 213-235, August. * D.B. Audretsch& L. Klomp& E. Santarelli& A.R. Thurik, 2004. "Gibrat's Law: Are the Services Different?," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 301-324, 05. Lotti, F., E. Santarelli and M. Vivarelli (2009), Defending Gibrat’s Law as a long-run regularity, Small Business Economic Journal, 32, 31-44. * Lotti, F. (2007), "Firm dynamics in manufacturing and services: a broken mirror?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 347-369, June.

Week 2

Profit-driven entry theory Break out Methodologies, data and case studies for group work (interactive session with evaluation) Applications on firms’ data References: *Capitolo 12, Cabral, Economia Industriale (2018), Entrata, uscita e comportamento strategico *Garavaglia,(2014), Analisi delle determinanti dell’entrata di nuove imprese nei settori industriali: una rassegna, LIUC Papers n. 144

Week 3

Innovation and the industry-life cycle Break out Methodologies, data and case studies for group work (interactive session with evaluation) References: *Garavaglia,(2014), Analisi delle determinanti dell’entrata di nuove imprese nei settori industriali: una rassegna, LIUC Papers n. 144 * Klepper, S, 1996. "Entry, Exit, Growth, and Innovation over the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 562-83, June.

Week 4

Shake-out of industrial sectors Break out Methodologies, data and case studies for group work (interactive session with evaluation) References Klepper, S. & Miller, J. H., 1995. "Entry, exit, and shakeouts in the United States in new manufactured products," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 567-591, December.

Week 5

Competing technologies and increasing returns to adoption Break out Methodologies, data and case studies for group work (interactive session with evaluation) References: Lissoni, F. (2014) “Tecnologie concorrenti e rendimenti crescenti da adozione” in Economia dell’innovazione, a cura di F. Malerba.

Week 6

Entrepreneurship. Facts, trends and historical background References: Lotti e Meliciani, Dinamiche industriali, capitolo 7. Entrepreneurship and territory References: Fritsch e Mueller (2008); the effect of new business formation on regional development over time, Small Business Economics, 30 Fritsch e Schroeter (2011), Why Does the Effect of New Business Formation Differ Across Regions? (November 2007). Jena Economic Research Paper No. 2007-077, http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1026601 Entrepreneurship, age and population structure References: Pierre Azoulay, Benjamin F. Jones, J. Daniel Kim, and Javier Mirand, Age and High-Growth Entrepreneurship, AER: Insights 2020, 2(1): 65–82, https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20180582 Xavier Ordenana, Paul Vera-Gilces, Jack Zambrano-Vera, Alfredo Jimenez, The effect of high-growth and innovative entrepreneurship on economic growth, Journal of Business Research 171 (2024) 114243 Liang J, Wang H., Lazear Edward P., (2018) Demographics and Entrepreneurship, Journal of Political Economy, 2018, vol. 126, no. S1]

Week 7

Entrepreneurship and external environment Ardagna, S. and Lusardi, A., 2008. Explaining international differences in entrepreneurship: The role of individual characteristics and regulatory constraints (No. w14012). National Bureau of Economic Research. References: Lotti e Meliciani, Dinamiche industriali, capitolo 7.

Week 8

The fragmented world economy in a polycrisis scenario The class will discuss how the main tendency of the global economy is towards a risky fragmentation across practically all domains, economic, social and political, along the lines not of the two blocs of countries Us and China but of a certain number of rival economic blocks given the relevant new role of intermediate countries. IMF (2022), Geo-economic Puzzle. Policymaking in a More Fragmented World, Finance and Development, pp. 1-19, June DeLong, J. Bradford (2022), Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century, New York: Basic Books, 2022. Break out Methodologies, data and case studies for group work (interactive session with evaluation)

Week 9

The role of industrial policies in the new global economy The class will explore how the sequence of major crises that have unfolded in the recent past has produced severe disruptions in the global economy. Industrial policy and economic security have come to the fore as very relevant elements needed to reconstruct global governance. Guerrieri P. and P.C.Padoan (2024), Sovereign Europe. An Agenda for Europe in a Fragmented Global Economy, Edward Elgar, ch. 5 Farrell H., Newman A.L. (2019), Weaponized Interdependence: How Global Economic Networks Shape State Coercion, in “International Security”, 44, 1, pp. 42-79 Break out Methodologies, data and case studies for group work (interactive session with evaluation)

Week 10

Industrial Policy and Open Strategic Autonomy The open strategic autonomy (OSA) is a concept that has long been debated in Europe. Th class will discuss how the concept should emphasize the need for Europe to become a stronger player in the geopolitical arena while maintaining an open and competitive market economy, by integrating 'national security’ considerations into EU economic policy. Guerrieri P. and P.C. Padoan (2024), European Competitiveness and Strategic Autonomy, LUISS LEAP Working Paper 02/2024 European Commission (2023), Joint Communication to the European Parliament, the European Council and the Council on “European Economic Security Strategy”, 20 June Break out Methodologies, data and case studies for group work (interactive session with evaluation)

Week 11

EU trade and industrial policy The class will lay the foundations of what EU trade policy is and why its link with industrial policy is a crucial tool for bolstering Europe's economic and international presence. We will discuss how they could align with Europe's strategic interests and adapt to the evolving global context. Aghion P. (2023), An Innovation-Driven Industrial Policy for Europe, in S. Tagliapietra, R. Veugelers (editors), “Sparking Europe’s New Industrial Revolution: A Policy for Net Zero, Growth and Resilience,” Bruegel, Brussels. Hoekman B.M., Puccio L. (2019), EU Trade Policy: Challenges and Opportunities, in “Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Policy Papers”, 6, 2019 Break out Methodologies, data and case studies for group work (interactive session with evaluation)

Week 12

Global governance and industrial policy: a pragmatic multilateralism The class will lay the foundations of what is global governance and we will review the key theoretical concepts that have been used to assess its role. We will also review the historic debate around multilateralism and the impact of national industrial policies in an international context. Obsfeld M. (2024), Economic multilateralism after 80 years of Bretton Woods, PIIE, Working Papers 9/24 April. Guerrieri P. and P.C.Padoan (2024), Sovereign Europe. An Agenda for Europe in a Fragmented Global Economy, Edward Elgar, ch. 5 Break out Methodologies, data and case studies for group work (interactive session with evaluation)