DEMOGRAPHY AND SOCIAL CHALLENGES

DEMOGRAPHY AND SOCIAL CHALLENGES

Maria Rita Testa

Instructional goals

The course aims to provide students with the knowledge of basic tools of demography and in depth understanding of the main geo-demographic trends which are functional to the correct interpretation of today's social challenges. Demography shapes much of our world and this has never been as true as it is today. A variety of issues related to population and its relationship with the territories are increasingly present, albeit indirectly, in the academic, political and public debate: overpopulation, environmental pollution, food safety, availability and use of energy resources, urbanization, migrations flows, attraction of qualified human capital, geopolitical strategies, ethnic and religious conflicts, geo-economic competition, international trade, direct foreign investments. The well-known saying attributed to Auguste Comte that “demography is destiny” should not be taken in a deterministic manner with an absolute mean. However, it is fair to state that demography has contributed to tracing the political, economic and social evolution of peoples, human communities, States and geographical areas. This has been true in the past - when population studies had a predominantly, if not solely, statistical-accounting significance – but even more so in recent decades, in which the analysis of population trends has become essential for interpreting the patterns of change in a globalized world. Our planet has witnessed a real geo-demographic revolution characterized by different evolutionary phases that have heavily influenced, and will continue to influence, the definition of territorial structures and human relations. The course will provide a broad outlook of these interconnections among the demographic trends and the political, and socioeconomic phenomena. Sustainability and the Euro-Mediterranean area, especially Italy, will be treated with a special emphasis.

Intended learning outcomes

- Knowledge and understanding The student – through course attendance and practical activities – will become familiar with the principles of demography and the interlink of demography with international relations, urbanization, geopolitical settings, economic development, and environment. They will acquire an in-depth knowledge on the demographic change of Italy and the Euro-Mediterranean area. The acquired knowledge will be assessed through a quantitative report, a review and a paper as well as through a oral discussion on the learned contents at the end of the course. - Applying knowledge and understanding Student will become familiar with the most important demographic methods and techniques and with the most important challenges related to population change. They will be able to identify and critically address demographic problems and possible solutions. The assessment of the ability to ‘apply knowledge and understanding’ will take place during the course through reports, reviews and papers aimed at deepening the investigation of specific demographic topics, and at the end of the course, through a written test and an oral colloquium. - Making judgments Students will acquire analytical skills that will allow them to access and discuss contemporary research around demography and social challenges. They will gain a critical spirit in the investigation of demographic phenomena and its interrelations with social and economic challenges. By using the appropriate methods learned during the course, students will be able to select the most suitable demographic data, literature and materials among the available sources. They will be able to evaluate quality and reliability of demographic data and materials independently and to critically judge their application to population related challenges. - Communication skills By the end of the course, students will be able to transmit with clarity, rigor, and methodological consistency the different demographic challenges in the different socioeconomic and geo-political scenarios. Through the various activities that will take place during the course – lessons with discussion, debates, group work – students will be able practice communication skills in various contexts. They will learn to adapt the terms used to the specific context, thus gaining advanced rhetorical skills needed for their professional career. - Learning skills By putting into practice the methodologies learned during lectures and seminars, students will be able to elaborate on different demographic issues and conduct research by consulting specialist texts and journals. They will develop a solid knowledge of the fundamental aspects of demography and the related social challenges. They will be able to carry on also independently further research in population studies and to undertake different postgraduate training activities including demographic subjects.

Course Contents

Knowledge of basic statistical concepts is desirable

Reference Books

Mandatory textbooks: Lundquist, J.H., Anderton D.L., Yaukey B. (2015), Demography. The study of Human Population. Fourth Edition. Waveland Press Goerres, A. and P. Vanhuysse (eds.). 2021. Global Political Demography. The Politics of Population Change, Palgrave MacMillan. Livi Bacci, M. (2017) A concise History of World Population. Wiley Blackwell. - Statistical datasheets, statistical reports, peer-reviewed journal articles, and lectures slides will be shared with the students on Moodle (LUISS Learn course webpage). These additional materials will complement the textbooks and prepare the students for the achievement of the intended learning outcomes.

Teaching Methods

- Two lectures with the support of audio-visuals; - Lectures by external experts; - Case studies with the direct involvement of students; - Inquiry based learning; - Problem based learning; - Peer education; - Flipped classroom.

Assessment Method

The students’ assessment will be as follows: - a book review, individual work (30%) - a presentation of a research piece, group work (30%) - an oral exam, individual conversation (30%) - active participation to classes (10%) The grade is expressed in thirtieths and ranges from 17 to 31. A categorization of grades expressing the level of students’ performance is as follows: insufficient (17); sufficient (18-20); good (21-23); very good (24-26); excellent (27-29); outstanding (30-31). The overall level of preparation of the student, will be assessed by following the general repartition criterion: knowledge and understanding of the notions of demography and ability to apply them to concrete cases (65%); ability to communicate acquired skills clearly and appropriately; as well as ability to critically consult demographic data-sources and literature (35%). Attendance is mandatory, absences must be announced and motivated. Students who cannot attend the course for valid and justified reasons, should contact the instructor right at the beginning of the course. Students who cannot ensure the regular attendance of the course cannot be assessed as the attending students. Non attending students will have to write an essay on a topic decided by the professor and conduct an oral interview the day of the exam. The contents of the oral interview cover all the three textbooks as well as the additional topics addressed during the classes. The topic of the essay will be chosen by the professor among the those covered during the lessons. Students who cannot ensure a regular attendance of the course are strongly encouraged to contact the professor in the first two weeks of the semester.

Thesis assignment criteria

Active attendance of the course. Quality of the proposed research topic. Grade at the exam “Demography and Social Challenges”.

Week 1

Week 1 - Introduction to Demography Session one: - Basic demographic concepts and issues - Balancing equation of population Session two: - Population trends Lectures content: - Materials provided by the instructor on Luiss Learn

Week 2

Week 2 –Global Population Data and Trends Session one: - Population change: the long view - Population data sources Session two: - Is demography destiny? Debate Lectures content: - Materials provided by the instructor on Luiss Learn.

Week 3

Week 3 – Population and Development Session one: - Malthus and the neo-Malthusians - The demographic transition theory Session two: - Population and development: which relation? Discussion. Lectures content: - Materials provided by the instructor on Luiss Learn.

Week 4

Week 4 –Demographic measures, data, and approaches Session one: - Demographic measures: period and cohort approach - Data explorers, outputs of demographic trends. Session two: - How far can we rely on demographic sources? Overview of cases. Lectures content: - Materials provided by the instructor on Luiss Learn.

Week 5

Week 5 – Mortality Session one: - Changing causes of death. Causes and consequences - Life tables and mortality transition. Session two: - Will mortality trends change because of Covid19? Forum (Blog production) Lectures content: - Materials provided by the instructor on Luiss Learn.

Week 6

Week 6 – Fertility Session one: - Variability in fertility levels and trends - Conditions for a fertility decline. Theories and models Session two: - Is low fertility a problem? Debate Lectures content: - Materials provided by the instructor on Luiss Learn.

Week 7

Week 7 – Mediterranean Session one: - Migration flows in the Mediterranean area. - Differential demographics in the Mediterranean area. Session two: - Will the demography of Mediterranean countries converge in the coming decades? Debate. Lectures content: - Materials provided by the instructor on Luiss Learn.

Week 8

Week 8 – Diplomacy Session one: - Population and diplomacy - The new geo-political equilibria Session two: How does demography influence diplomacy? Discussion Lectures content: - Materials provided by the instructor on Luiss Learn.

Week 9

Week 9 – Security Session one: - Power Transition Theory - Demography and conflicts Session two: - How much does population matter on a geopolitical level? Discussion Lectures content: - Materials provided by the instructor on Luiss Learn.

Week 10

Week 10 – Migration & Environment Session one: - Migration trends and theories - Climate migration and sustainability Session two: - Is replacement migration suitable to compensate for population decline and ageing? Lectures content: - Materials provided by the instructor on Luiss Learn.

Week 11

Week 11 – Education & Urbanization Session one: - Human capital and demographic metabolism - Inequalities and rural-urban divide - Session two: - How does education-urbanization will drive future population trends? Discussion Lectures content: - Materials provided by the instructor on Luiss Learn.

Week 12

Week 12 – Ageing Session one: - Measuring population ageing: alternative approaches - Causes and consequences of population ageing Session two: - Is global ageing a problem or an opportunity? Discussion. Lectures content: - Materials provided by the instructor on Luiss Learn.