EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY IN TIMES OF CRISES

EUROPEAN POLITICAL ECONOMY IN TIMES OF CRISES

Marco Simoni

Instructional goals

This course will examine causes, development and consequences of the Euro-crises that punctuated the last fifteen years. The main focus will be on the (financial and) sovereign debt crises and the policy response, but the Covid-19 crisis will be also examined in comparative perspective. The study of the crises and understanding the reactions at the national and EU level is paramount to fully grasp current events and future perspectives on Europe. Through a deep understanding of the European political economy of the last fifteen years, students will develop the capacity to independently examine European contemporary issues. Theoretical tools from Economics and Political science will be employed together with a deep examination of empirical events and data in order to equip the students with the full array of critical material necessary to develop competences and skills in European political economy.

Prerequisites

-

Course Contents

Topics include: The construction of the Eurozone and its economic results; fiscal profligacy and the building of fragile public accounts; the financial and economic crisis: the great recession. Trade and competitiveness in the Eurozone; banking and credit problems; the balance of payment crisis and target balances. Current accounts and capital movements; France and Germany; the institutional change – ESM and OMT; banking union; the future of the Eurosystem. The creation of the Euro; the origins of the crisis; Greece and the beginning of the debt crisis; Ireland and the banking crash; the beginning of austerity. Draghi’s Whatever it takes; it’s not the fault of the Euro: it’s the policy that matters; what we learn from the policy reaction to the crisis; how to restore economic growth; a “new deal” for the Euro? Understanding legitimacy during the Eurocrisis; input and output legitimacy; the European Council; the European Central Bank. The European Commission and the European Parliament during the crisis; the effectiveness of EU policies; National vs EU policies; perspectives on EU legitimacy. Capitalism and democracy in Europe; growth and inequality; political institutions, markets and society. America and the roots of Trumpism; the paradox of Brexit: crisis in a non-Euro country. The new North-South divide in Europe; crisis and its aftermath in Spain and Italy. The concept of anti-system politics. The COVID-19: monetary response; the fiscal response: suspending the rules and the EU stimulus; the mutualization of debt; response to Covid in (EU) comparative perspective.

Reference Books

Sinn, H. W. (2014), The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs, Oxford University Press Sandbu, Martin (2017), Europe's Orphan: The Future of the Euro and the Politics of Debt, Princeton University Press, Princeton and Oxford Schmidt, Vivien A. (2020), Europe’s Crisis of Legitimacy. Governing by Rules and Ruling by Numbers in the Eurozone. Oxford University Press Hopkin, Jonathan (2020), Anti-System Politics. The Crisis of Market Liberalism in Rich Democracies, Oxford University Press Special Issue on Covid Response: JOURNAL OF EUROPEAN PUBLIC POLICY 2023, VOL. 30, NO. 4

Teaching Methods

The course will have one lecture and one seminar per week. Before the seminar, students will have to submit a one-page “Reading” report each week on one book chapter of their choice from the required readings. The reading report will be written on a blueprint given at the beginning of the course. During the first week students will choose the title for their final essay. The same title will be the topic of their presentation during seminars. Seminars will discuss the week’s material through the students’ presentation and the responses to the Reading report. The Final Essay will be submitted by email one week after the end of the course.

Assessment Method

Accuracy of the reading reports will count 10% of the final mark. The final essay will count for 60% of the final mark. The final exam will be formed by open-ended questions and will count for 30% of the final mark. Students that do not attend will take a longer final exam that will count for 100% of the mark.

Thesis assignment criteria

Students that wish to be supervised for their "tesi di laurea", i.e. final dissertation, must ask me in class for the eligibility criteria.

Week 1

European crisis: a standard economist’s view (1) The construction of the Eurozone and its economic results; fiscal profligacy and the building of fragile public accounts; the financial and economic crisis: the great recession. Mandatory reading: Sinn, H. W. (2014), Ch. 1-3 Additional readings: P. De Grauwe (2006) “What Have we Learnt about Monetary Integration since the Maastricht Treaty?”, Journal of Common Market Studies, 44(4), pp. 711–30 Baldwin, R., et al. (2015) ‘Rebooting the Eurozone: Step 1 – Agreeing a Crisis Narrative Introduction and Summary’, CEPR Policy Insight 85(November). De Grauwe, P. (2020). Economics of the monetary union. Oxford University Press, USA. Chapters 1,2,3

Week 2

European crisis: a standard economist’s view (2) Trade and competitiveness in the Eurozone; banking and credit problems; the balance of payment crisis and target balances Mandatory reading: Sinn, H. W. (2014), Ch. 4-6. Additional readings: Tørsløv, T.R., L.S. Wier, and G. Zucman (2018) ‘The Missing Profits of Nations’, NBER Working Paper 24701 (June) – Revised April 2020 Blot, C. and Hubert, P. (2021) ‘Public debt: Central banks to the rescue?’ OFCE le blog, January 29

Week 3

European crisis: a standard economist’s view (3) Current accounts and capital movements; France and Germany; the institutional change – ESM and OMT; banking union; the future of the Eurosystem Mandatory reading: Sinn, H. W. (2014), Ch. 7-9. Additional readings: Wolf, M. (2014). The shifts and the shocks: What we’ve learned–and have still to learn–from the financial crisis. Penguin UK Saraceno, F. (2013) ‘Would a United States of Europe Finally Solve the Euro Zone Crisis?’, Strategic Review 3(4): 129–40. (Drive)

Week 4

An alternative perspective on the EU crisis (1) The creation of the Euro; the origins of the crisis; Greece and the beginning of the debt crisis; Ireland and the banking crash; the beginning of austerity. Mandatory reading: Sandbu, M. (2017), Ch. 1-5 Additional readings: Baldwin, R., et al. (2015) ‘Rebooting the Eurozone: Step 1 – Agreeing a Crisis Narrative Introduction and Summary’, CEPR Policy Insight 85(November). Rodrik, Dani (2018), Straight Talk on Trade. Ideas for a Sane World Economy, Princeton University Press, Princeton and Oxford (Chapter 3 and 12)

Week 5

An alternative perspective on the EU crisis (2) Draghi’s Whatever it takes; it’s not the fault of the Euro: it’s the policy that matters; what we learn from the policy reaction to the crisis; how to restore economic growth; a “new deal” for the Euro? Mandatory reading: Sandbu, M. (2017), Ch. 6-11 Additional readings: Saraceno, F. (2017) ‘When Keynes Goes to Brussels: A New Fiscal Rule for the EMU?’, Annals of the Fondazione Luigi Einaudi 51(2): 131–58. P. Krugman “How did Economists Get it so Wrong?” The New York Times Magazine, 9/6/2009

Week 6

The crisis of legitimacy of EU institutions (1) Understanding legitimacy during the Eurocrisis; input and output legitimacy; the European Council; the European Central Bank. Mandatory reading: Schmidt, Vivien A. (2020), Ch. 1-6 Additional readings: Tooze, A. (2021) “The Death of the Central Bank Myth”, Foreign Policy, May 13 Heijdra, M., Aarden, T., Hanson, J., and van Dijk, T. (2018), “A more stable EMU https://voxeu.org/article/more-stable-emu-does-not-require-central-fiscal-capacitydoes not require a central fiscal capacity”, VoxEU, published 30 November 2018. Buti, M., Carnot, N., “The case for a central fiscal capacity in EMU”, VoxEU, 07 December 2018.

Week 7

Reading week. How to structure an essay. How to write an exam. Useful reading: Hancké, B., Intelligent Research Design, Oxford University Press, Chapter 5 and Chapter 1

Week 8

The crisis of legitimacy of EU institutions (2) The European Commission and the European Parliament during the crisis; the effectiveness of EU policies; National vs EU policies; perspectives on EU legitimacy. Mandatory reading: Schmidt, Vivien A. (2020), Ch. 7-11 Additional readings: Scharpf, F. W. (2011). Monetary union, fiscal crisis and the pre-emption of democracy. Zeitschrift für Staats-und Europawissenschaften (ZSE)/Journal for Comparative Government and European Policy, 163-198 Nölke, Andreas. "Economic causes of the Eurozone crisis: the analytical contribution of Comparative Capitalism." Socio-Economic Review 14, no. 1 (2016): 141-161 Blanchard, O., A. Leandro, and J. Zettelmeyer (2021) ‘Redesigning EU Fiscal Rules: From Rules to Standards’, PIIE Working Paper 21–1(February)

Week 9

The consequences of crisis (1) Capitalism and democracy in Europe; growth and inequality; political institutions, markets and society; Mandatory reading: Hopkin, Jonathan (2020), Intro and Ch. 1-2 Additional readings: Stiglitz, Joseph E. (2016), The Euro. How a Common Currency Threatens the Future of Europe (Chapter 7 and 8) Frieden, Jeffry, and Stefanie Walter. "Understanding the political economy of the Eurozone crisis." Annual Review of Political Science 20 (2017): 371-390

Week 10

The consequences of crisis (2) America and the roots of Trumpism; the paradox of Brexit: crisis in a non-Euro country. Mandatory reading: Hopkin, Jonathan (2020), Ch. 3-4 and Conclusions Additional readings: P. Krugman, (2008) The Return of Depression Economics and the Crisis of 2008, Penguin, London, Chapters 8-9-10 Saraceno, F. 2022. The return of fiscal policy: The new EU macroeconomic activism and lessons for future reform, ILO Working Paper 59, April (Geneva, ILO).

Week 11

The consequences of crisis (2) The new North-South divide in Europe; crisis and its aftermath in Spain and Italy. The concept of anti-system politics. Mandatory reading: Hopkin, Jonathan (2020), Ch. 5-8 and Conclusions Additional readings: JP Fitoussi and F. Saraceno, (2010) “Europe: How Deep Is a Crisis? Policy Responses and Structural Factors Behind Diverging Performances” Journal of Globalization and Development, (1)1 Saraceno, F. (2017) ‘Rethinking fiscal policy lessons from the European Monetary Union” ILO Working Papers Pérez, Sofía A. "A Europe of creditor and debtor states: explaining the north/south divide in the Eurozone." West European Politics 42, no. 5 (2019): 989-1014

Week 12

The European response to the Covid crisis. Monetary response; the fiscal response: suspending the rules and the EU stimulus; the mutualization of debt; response to Covid in (EU) comparative perspective. Mandatory reading: Journal of European Public Policy, 2023, Vol. 30, NO. 4 Special Issue on the Covid-19 Pandemic and the EU: - “The COVID-19 pandemic and the European Union: politics, policies and institutions”, by Lucia Quaglia & Amy Verdun (pag. 599-611) - “Next generation EU and the future of economic governance: towards a paradigm change or just a big one-off?”, by Marco Buti and Sergio Fabbrini Additional readings: Any other article from JEPP(2023: 30, 4); The Coronavirus Crisis and the Welfare State: Social Europe Dossier, January: 20-26 Fornaro, L. and M. Wolf (2020)” Coronavirus and macroeconomic policy” VoxEU 10 March Cerniglia, F. and F. Saraceno (2020) ‘Introduction’, in Cerniglia F. and Saraceno F. (eds), A European Public Investment Outlook. Cambridge: Open Book Publishers. Brasili, A., et al (2021) ‘Public Investment in the Pandemic—Europe at a Glance’, in Cerniglia F. Saraceno F. and Watt, A (eds), The Great Reset: 2021 European Public Investment Outlook. Cambridge: Open Book Publishers. Börner, S. (2021) “Is the Coronavirus going to Reshape the European Welfare State?” The Coronavirus Crisis and the Welfare State: Social Europe Dossier, January: 20-26 Saraceno, F. (2021) ‘Europe After COVID-19: A New Role for German Leadership?’, Intereconomics 59(March/April): 65–9.