INTERNATIONAL PROJECT FINANCE & SUSTAINABILITY

INTERNATIONAL PROJECT FINANCE & SUSTAINABILITY

Federico Merola

Instructional goals

The purpose of the course is to provide students with a solid understanding of fundamental techniques for structuring, analysing and implementing Direct and Sustainable Investments in real assets (mainly infrastructure and industrial plants), focusing on project and export financing methodologies as prevailing on the international financial markets. Knowledge of the 'project based' approach - growing strongly in this historical phase - appears to be a necessary complement to the typical Corporate Finance approach. The issue of sustainability (ESG topic) also takes its own specific characteristic in the project investing (equity) and financing (finance) perspective. The course will provide students with a sound technical background based on sophisticated tools and quantitative models, required for structuring investments, with a particular attention to: a) project structuring; b) risk analysis and risk management c) project evaluation from a twofold perspective: lenders and equity players; d) definition and negotiation of the optimal financial structure (debt, equity and mezzanine) on the basis of the main techniques prevailing on international financial markets; e) financial modelling and M&A skills; f) sustainability criteria and tools (sustainable finance). Extensive reference will be made to the most typical legal terms and conditions of the most typical contracts pertaining to the network of documents of a project, with special attention to the financial contracts. In view of the growing importance for international financial markets of the sustainability of new investments in real assets - especially from an environmental and social point of view - a significant part of the course will be devoted to an in-depth understanding of the technical pillars of "sustainable finance", starting from the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRIs) launched by the UN (2006), the related ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) strategies and the most advanced standards and regulations. Furthermore, the course will analyze the specific sustainable finance instruments and tools applicable to infrastructure and industrial plants projects (e.g., taxonomies; sustainability standards applied to projects by multilateral and commercial banks; ESG-related bonds; ESG ratings and impact metrics). Finally, the course will provide a deep dive into the analysis of the new systemic risks linked to climate change and how they affect the risk/financial analysis of projects, also introducing the concept of ESG Key Performance Indexes (“KPIs”) for integrating and monitoring sustainable criteria within the project structure.

Intended learning outcomes

Knowledge and understanding: The course will offer key theoretical tools for structuring and analyzing greenfield investments in real assets (such as infrastructures and industrial plants), with a deep knowledge in project structuring; risk analysis; ESG and sustainability factors; financial modelling, including stress tests and sensitivity analysis of project’s cash flows and related key financial ratios - KPIs). The course also provides students the basic skills to understand best practices on the international markets for structuring and syndicating large project finance deals. Finally, the course will introduce students to the main principles, strategies and tools of responsible investments (PRI-ESG) and sustainable finance, applied to investments in real assets projects. Applying knowledge and understanding: At the end of the course the students will be able to: • Analyze and structure an international project finance transaction with the inclusion of all major parties usually involved; • Perform a risk analysis with the understanding of the best risk allocation balance among parties and the most used mitigation factors, including legal and financial tools available for this purpose; • Define and optimize a capital structure of an international PF transaction using various source of debt and equity incorporated within different financial instruments, within a large syndication on the market; • Structure a simple financial model calculating the main key financial ratios from the lenders’ (debt providers) and sponsors’ (equity investors) point of view, also performing sensitivity analysis and stress tests; • Understand the key principles of sustainable finance and ESG factors as well as all the most important principles and tools applicable to a sustainable long-term project finance transaction. Making judgements: At the end of the course, we expect students to be able to analyse and structure a project finance transaction according to the best standards prevailing on the international markets, demonstrating a sophisticated ability in risk analysis and risk allocation. Furthermore, it is the aim of the course to give students an understanding of financial modelling, including stress test and sensitivity analysis. Students are also expected to demonstrate an understanding of sustainable finance and ESG principles, with particular reference to long-term investments in real industrial and infrastructural assets. Understanding ESG strategies and the emerging taxonomic criteria for sustainable activities; the associated climate physical and transitional risks; and the KPIs defining the materiality of investment-related effects (and any ESG ratings), will also be very important. Communications Skills: This course will enable students to acquire, understand and use the main technical, legal and financial terms and concepts related to project financing transactions and sustainable finance, especially with reference to greenfield investments in industrial and infrastructure assets. Learning skills: This course will contribute: • to allow students to determine and evaluate the soundness of a project finance transaction; managing the risk analysis-allocation and to set up a financing structure combining various financial source (equity, debt, mezzanine, bonds, etc); • to set up financial models representing the base case of a project, applying stress tests and sensitivity analysis in order to verify the soundness of the deal in respect to potential changes and shocks; • finally, this course will also give students the knowledge of the main pillars of sustainable finance as well as the integration of ESG criteria into economic and financial analysis.

Course Contents

The course is articulated into four main theoretical parts plus tutorials/exercises, as follows: • “Basic definitions & tools”: introduction to project finance techniques and definitions widely used on the international markets for structuring, analysing and implementing Direct and Sustainable Investments in real assets (mainly infrastructure and industrial plants); key features of a project finance (“PF”) deal (definitions, project/financial structure and parties involved; different structure of equity investment/debt financing; financial markets; etc.). • "Inside the project": risk analysis and management; evaluation criteria for equity players and debt providers and key financial ratios; Capital structure of a project finance deal; main legal terms and conditions. • “Sustainable finance”: key principles & tools for understanding, evaluating and applying ESG criteria, requirements and standards to PF transactions. • “Financial model”: financial modelling, project evaluation; key financial ratios and related financial covenants and sensitivity-analysis.

Reference Books

Gatti, S. (2023, 4th edition). Project Finance in Theory and Practice: Designing, Structuring, and Financing Private and Public Projects (Third Edition). Academic Press. Slides will be provided and official documents or Publications may be suggested.

Teaching Methods

- Lessons with the support of dedicated material (slides and audiovisuals); - Problem based learning; - Analytical exercises; - Interactive case studies.

Assessment Method

Students will be assessed during the course through various exercises and at the end of the course with a final examination. The final examination will cover the entire program but its overall weight on the grade may not exceed 30% of the total. The final examination will be structured as follows: Written exam including the following sections: Section 1: multiple choices (n.22 questions – 0.5 points each – 30 minutes). Section 2: Q&A (n.8 open questions - up to 1,5 points each – 50 minutes). Section 3: open questions on financial modelling issues and financial modelling exercises (n.2 questions up to 2 points each; n.2 exercises up to 2.5 points each; 60 minutes). Active participation in presence with discussions and debates on the topics presented during the lessons will be positively considered as well as the participation in activities inspired by the Dublin Descriptors.

Thesis assignment criteria

Motivation and active participation during the course, preferably with a satisfactory grade (i.e.no less than 27/30).

Week 1

“BASIC DEFINITIONS & TOOLS” (1/2): • Introduction to the prevailing methodologies used on the international financial markets for investing in real assets: Corporate vs Project Finance; • Definition of project financing: main related features and tools; • Different kind of PF initiatives and schemes. Reference: reference book, slides, and additional material.

Week 2

“BASIC DEFINITIONS & TOOLS” (2/2): • Key features of PF and Public-private partnership (“PPP”); • The main parties usually involved in international PF: the project’s structure; • Sources of funding and capital structure for foreign direct investment projects. “FINANCIAL MODEL” (1/7): • Introduction; • Key components: Profit & Losses, Balance Sheet and Cash Flow; • Exercises. Reference: reference book, slides, and additional material.

Week 3

“INSIDE THE PROJECT” (1/6): • Risk analysis: key principles and risk management; • Risk analysis: Country risks, project risks and ESG risks – allocation and mitigation criteria. “FINANCIAL MODEL” (2/7): • Leverage effect; • Levered vs unlevered evaluation; • Project Finance vs Corporate Finance approach; • Sponsor vs lender perspectives; • Exercises. Reference: reference book, slides, and additional material.

Week 4

“INSIDE THE PROJECT” (2/6): • Risk analysis: Country risks, project risks and ESG risks – allocation and mitigation criteria; • Risk analysis: The Security Package. “FINANCIAL MODEL” (3/7): • Sponsor ratios; • Lender’s ratios; • Effect on return of ratios and ratios’ traps; • Exercises. Reference: reference book, slides, and additional material.

Week 5

“INSIDE THE PROJECT” (3/6): • Risk analysis: risk management and project structure: how to find a sound and sustainable project’s balance. Reference: reference book, slides, and additional material.

Week 6

“SUSTAINABLE FINANCE” (1/3): Fundamental pillars, frameworks and tools of Sustainable finance: • Origins and evolution of ESG and corporate sustainability; • United Nations role in advancing sustainability agenda worldwide; • European Union role in leading sustainability agenda worldwide; • European ESG regulations, from the Sustainable Finance Action Plan to the New Green Deal; • Key principles of sustainable finance, impact finance and sustainable investment strategies. “FINANCIAL MODEL” (4/7): • Different debt repayment schemes; • Case study: Sample lender term sheet; • Exercises. Reference: reference book, slides, and additional material.

Week 7

“SUSTAINABLE FINANCE” (2/3): Instruments and tools for applying Sustainable finance to infrastructure and industrial plants projects: • ESG and impact integration along the investment process cycle, from due diligence to performance monitoring; • Emerging taxonomies for sustainable activities and their effects on PF; • Frameworks and standards for issuing green, social, and climate bonds for PF transactions; • Multilateral development banks tools for PF, such as the Equator Principles and the World Bank/IFC standards; • ESG bond / lending process development and requirements for parties involved in PF transactions. Reference: slides and additional material.

Week 8

“SUSTAINABLE FINANCE” (3/3): New systemic risks linked to climate change and their impacts on the risk/financial analysis of projects: • Climate change, new emerging risks and their impact on PF transactions; • Frameworks and methodologies for evaluating climate-related physical and transition risks for PF; • Climate scenario analysis for evaluating PF resiliency; • How the risk analysis and the financial modelling (sensitivity analysis) may change in a sustainable conscious approach. Reference: reference book, slides, and additional material.

Week 9

“INSIDE THE PROJECT” (4/6): • The Financial Structure of a PF Deal: finding the right Debt to Equity ratio; • The equity side of the moon: key financial ratios for sponsors. “FINANCIAL MODEL” (5/7): • Evaluation process: target return and hurdle rate; • Sponsor’s ratios comparable: CAPM Model - WACC and Ke. • Case study; • Exercises. Reference: reference book, slides, and additional material.

Week 10

“INSIDE THE PROJECT” (5/6): • The debt side of the moon: key financial ratios for lenders; • The relationship between the financial model and the financial covenants. “FINANCIAL MODEL” (6/7): • Risk analysis and mitigation strategy; • Sensitivity vs stress test; • Risk matrix construction. Reference: reference book, slides, and additional material.

Week 11

“INSIDE THE PROJECT” (6/6): • Legal network of contracts; • Main project documents; • Financial documents: positive, negative and financial covenants. “FINANCIAL MODEL” (7/7): • Risk analysis application to a financial model; • Exercises; • Case study. Reference: reference book, slides, and additional material.

Week 12

Case studies and exercises. Reference: reference book, slides, and additional material.