ECONOMETRIC THEORY

ECONOMETRIC THEORY

Paolo Santucci De Magistris

Instructional goals

The purpose of the course is to provide the necessary tools for a thorough understanding of the theory of econometrics. The course goals are 1) to be able to perform estimation and testing in linear regression models, and to be comfortable with asymptotic theory for linear models, 2) to be able to implement econometric methods as needed for an empirical analyses in economics and finance.

Intended learning outcomes

Knowledge and understanding: The course will focus on the main econometric tools to perform quantitative analyses of economic data. This course provides analytical resources that will enable students to autonomously investigate the empirical validity of economic theory and to predict economic data. Applying knowledge and understanding: The students will be able to: • Carry out univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses • Determine the possible presence of causal relationships between economic variables • Adopt the most common estimation methods: linear projections, maximum likelihood, method of moments. Making judgements: We expect students to be able to set up and estimate econometric models and to interpret the outcomes in a sensible way. Students are asked to use the software MATLAB to gain insights on the econometric methodologies and their implementation. Learning skills: This course will contribute to empower learners giving them the theoretical, econometric and programming tools to autonomously study economic and financial data and test economic theories.

Course Contents

Some of the topics covered are: statistic foundations, single-equation linear model, and assumptions of the OLS estimator. Asymptotic properties of OLS and ML estimators. Testing (Likelihood-ratio, Wald, Lagrange Multipliers). Heteroskedasticity. Generalized least square estimator. Systems of equations. Measurement Error. Simultaneous equations model. Omitted variables. Instrumental variables estimation. Models for Panel Data. Generalized Method of Moments.

Reference Books

Greene, William, Econometric Analysis, Prentice Hall

Teaching Methods

Lectures and practice sections. The practice sessions are designed to cover more deeply the subjects introduced in class. The numerical/statistical software MATLAB will be extensively used in these sessions.

Assessment Method

- First exam in May 2024: Project work + 3 weekly assignments (both to be done in groups) - 70% (50% + 20%) of the final grade + 2 hours final written exam with 1 theory question and 1 exercise in MATLAB - 30% of the final grade The project work (to be handed in a week before the written exam) will be orally presented by the group members before the written exam - Exam in June 2024 and following dates: 3 hours written exam with 2 theory questions and 1 exercise in MATLAB - 100% of the final grade No carry over of the grades from project works and weekly assignments after May 2024

Thesis assignment criteria

Assignments of the project works will be discussed with the teacher and the teaching assistant.

Week 1 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Research methods in economics and finance

Week 2 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Research methods in economics and finance

Week 3 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

The linear regression model

Week 4 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

The least square estimator

Week 5 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

A modicum of asymptotic theory for econometricians

Week 6 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Testing in the linear regression model

Week 7 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Heteroskedasticity and GLS estimator. White test and robust covariance matrix estimator

Week 8 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Systems of Equations

Week 9 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Maximum likelihood (ML) estimation

Week 10 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Testing in the ML context

Week 11 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

Endogeneity: causes and solutions (instrumental variables)

Week 12 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

The generalized method of moments