APPLIED STATISTICS AND ECONOMETRICS
Instructional goals
The course introduces students to statistical and econometric techniques aimed at empirically addressing economic and financial case studies. Practices, coupled with the use of statistical software for the analysis of real-world data will allow students to gain their abilities in collecting, analyzing, and interpreting macro and micro data. The course also develops digital competences as of EU DIGCOMP 2.1 (Competence area 1: Information and data literacy; Competence area 2: Communication and collaboration; Competence area 3: Digital content creation).
Intended learning outcomes
Theoretical and applied lectures (with real case studies).
Review on linear regression with one regressor.
Linear regression with multiple regressors.
Hypothesis tests and confidence intervals in multiple regression.
The econometric theory of regression analysis.
Nonlinear regression functions.
Estimation Causal Effects.
Regression models for panel data.
Regression models for binary variables.
Practice Sessions.
Practice sessions are designed to develop the students’ ability in collecting and analyzing data in economics, finance or management, and in analyzing them also by means of statistical software and advanced spreadsheet (RStudio).
Course Contents
Knowledge and understanding: knowledge of data types and related univariate analysis techniques, including simple linear regression model, multiple linear regression model, regression models for panel data, regression models for binary variables.
Applying knowledge and understanding: ability in selecting appropriate data analysis methods, and in analyzing relationships among variables in economics, finance and management
Making judgements: ability in collecting, using and critically interpreting quantitative and qualitative data related to economics, finance and management, achieved through the analysis of documents issued by official national and international statistics, scientific articles on statistical methods and applications, case studies. Digital competences are developed.
Communication skills: ability to spot and present the most suitable framework for the empirical analysis based on the nature of the economic-financial data at hand and effective communication of data analysis results.
Learning skills: ability to learn autonomously data analysis techniques, in professional activities or subsequent studies, achieved through the analysis of econometric methods applied in economics, finance and management.
Reference Books
Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. Introduction to Econometrics, (fourth edition), Pearson Ed.
Greene, W.H. (2011). Econometric Analysis (seventh edition), Prentice Hall.
Teaching Methods
Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, interactive visualization, case studies in social sciences based on real data, also using statistical and econometric packages
Case studies, Analysis of the literature, Scientific articles, Data from official statistical sources.
Assessment Method
Students will be evaluated based on a written exam, consisting of both theoretical and empirical questions covering the entire program.
The exam may include both open and multiple-choice questions.
Students are required to be equipped with a basic pocket calculator. During the exam it is not allowed to consult books or class notes. Phones, tablets, etc. must be switched off.
During the exam, each candidate will be asked to show a document with a picture (preferably, the university badge).
After the exam, the final marks will be uploaded in the suitable website and the students will receive a message. After 3 days, marks of students that did not rejected the evaluation will automatically be saved.
Bonus points. Students can earn up to 4 bonus points (on a 30-point scale) by completing an optional bonus test, which will take place during Week 7.
The bonus test will mirror the structure of the final exam and will include both theoretical and empirical questions covering the course content. The test may feature a combination of open-ended and multiple-choice questions.
Bonus points will be added to the final exam grade only if all the following conditions are met:
1. It is the student’s first attempt at the exam.
2. The student achieves a minimum score of 18/30 on the final exam.
3. The exam is taken during the winter exam session.
Thesis assignment criteria
The degree thesis involves the application of statistical-econometric methodologies in business or economics. The topic and the criteria for its assignment will be discussed with the teacher
Week 1
Introduction
Recap of probability and statistics
Introduction to matrix algebra
LM model assumptions
SW chapters 1-2-3; G chapters 1-2, Appx. A-B-C
Week 2
OLS estimator
OLS assumptions and estimator
OLS finite sample properties (Gauss-Markov theorem)
OLS large sample properties
SW chapters 4-5-6, 18-19; G chapters 2-3
Week 3
OLS inference
OLS interval estimation
t and F tests
SW chapters 7, 19; G chapters 4.5, 5
Week 4
Maximum Likelihood Estimator
Principle of ML
Properties of MLE
Likelihood-based tests (LR, Wald, LM)
G chapters 14.1-14.6
Week 5
Linear model rivisited
Goodness of fit
Dummy variables
Multicollinearity
SW chapters 5-6; G chapters 3.5, 6.2
Week 6
Heteroskedasticity
Consequences
Test (White)
GLS/WLS estimators
SW chapters 5.4-5; G chapters 9
Week 7
Nonlinear Regression Function
General strategies for modeling nonlinear regression function
Nonlinear functions of a single independent variables
Interaction between independent and dependent variables
SW Chapter 8, G Chapter 6.1-2
Week 8
Assessing studies based on multiple regression
Internal and external validity
Threats to internal validity of multiple regression analysis
SW Chapter 9
Week 9
Instrumental Variables Regression
Prediction and causality
The IV Estimator with a single regressor and a single instrument
The general IV regression model
SW Chapter 12, G Chapter 8.1-3
Week 10
Regression with Panel Data
Panel data
Fixed effects regression
Regression with time fixed effects
The fixed effects regression assumption and standard errors for fixed effects regression
SW Chapter 10, G Chapter 11.1-4
Week 11
Regression with a Binary Dependent Variable
Binary dependent variables and the linear probability model
Probit and logit regression
Estimation and inference in the logit and probit models
SW Chapter 11, G Chapter 17.1-3
Week 12
Course revision and exam preparation
Review of key statistical and econometric concepts
Review of practice exercise for the exam