APPLIED STATISTICS AND ECONOMETRICS

APPLIED STATISTICS AND ECONOMETRICS

Matteo Iacopini, Christian-Timothy Brownlees

Instructional goals

The course introduces students to statistical and econometric techniques aimed at empirically addressing economic and financial case studies. Practices, coupled with the use of statistical software for the analysis of real-world data will allow students to gain their abilities in collecting, analyzing, and interpreting macro and micro data. The course also develops digital competences as of EU DIGCOMP 2.1 (Competence area 1: Information and data literacy; Competence area 2: Communication and collaboration; Competence area 3: Digital content creation).

Intended learning outcomes

Theoretical and applied lectures (with real case studies). Review on linear regression with one regressor. Linear regression with multiple regressors. Hypothesis tests and confidence intervals in multiple regression. The econometric theory of regression analysis. Nonlinear regression functions. Estimation Causal Effects. Regression models for panel data. Regression models for binary variables. Practice Sessions. Practice sessions are designed to develop the students’ ability in collecting and analyzing data in economics, finance or management, and in analyzing them also by means of statistical software and advanced spreadsheet (RStudio).

Course Contents

Knowledge and understanding: knowledge of data types and related univariate analysis techniques, including simple linear regression model, multiple linear regression model, regression models for panel data, regression models for binary variables. Applying knowledge and understanding: ability in selecting appropriate data analysis methods, and in analyzing relationships among variables in economics, finance and management Making judgements: ability in collecting, using and critically interpreting quantitative and qualitative data related to economics, finance and management, achieved through the analysis of documents issued by official national and international statistics, scientific articles on statistical methods and applications, case studies. Digital competences are developed. Communication skills: ability to spot and present the most suitable framework for the empirical analysis based on the nature of the economic-financial data at hand and effective communication of data analysis results. Learning skills: ability to learn autonomously data analysis techniques, in professional activities or subsequent studies, achieved through the analysis of econometric methods applied in economics, finance and management.

Reference Books

Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. Introduction to Econometrics, (fourth edition), Pearson Ed. Greene, W.H. (2011). Econometric Analysis (seventh edition), Prentice Hall.

Teaching Methods

Lectures, exercises, applied exercises, interactive visualization, case studies in social sciences based on real data, also using statistical and econometric packages Case studies, Analysis of the literature, Scientific articles, Data from official statistical sources.

Assessment Method

Students will be evaluated based on a written exam, consisting of both theoretical and empirical questions covering the entire program. The exam may include both open and multiple-choice questions. Students are required to be equipped with a basic pocket calculator. During the exam it is not allowed to consult books or class notes. Phones, tablets, etc. must be switched off. During the exam, each candidate will be asked to show a document with a picture (preferably, the university badge). After the exam, the final marks will be uploaded in the suitable website and the students will receive a message. After 3 days, marks of students that did not rejected the evaluation will automatically be saved. Bonus points. Students can earn up to 4 bonus points (on a 30-point scale) by completing an optional bonus test, which will take place during Week 7. The bonus test will mirror the structure of the final exam and will include both theoretical and empirical questions covering the course content. The test may feature a combination of open-ended and multiple-choice questions. Bonus points will be added to the final exam grade only if all the following conditions are met: 1. It is the student’s first attempt at the exam. 2. The student achieves a minimum score of 18/30 on the final exam. 3. The exam is taken during the winter exam session.

Thesis assignment criteria

The degree thesis involves the application of statistical-econometric methodologies in business or economics. The topic and the criteria for its assignment will be discussed with the teacher

Week 1

Introduction Recap of probability and statistics Introduction to matrix algebra LM model assumptions SW chapters 1-2-3; G chapters 1-2, Appx. A-B-C

Week 2

OLS estimator OLS assumptions and estimator OLS finite sample properties (Gauss-Markov theorem) OLS large sample properties SW chapters 4-5-6, 18-19; G chapters 2-3

Week 3

OLS inference OLS interval estimation t and F tests SW chapters 7, 19; G chapters 4.5, 5

Week 4

Maximum Likelihood Estimator Principle of ML Properties of MLE Likelihood-based tests (LR, Wald, LM) G chapters 14.1-14.6

Week 5

Linear model rivisited Goodness of fit Dummy variables Multicollinearity SW chapters 5-6; G chapters 3.5, 6.2

Week 6

Heteroskedasticity Consequences Test (White) GLS/WLS estimators SW chapters 5.4-5; G chapters 9

Week 7

Nonlinear Regression Function General strategies for modeling nonlinear regression function Nonlinear functions of a single independent variables Interaction between independent and dependent variables SW Chapter 8, G Chapter 6.1-2

Week 8

Assessing studies based on multiple regression Internal and external validity Threats to internal validity of multiple regression analysis SW Chapter 9

Week 9

Instrumental Variables Regression Prediction and causality The IV Estimator with a single regressor and a single instrument The general IV regression model SW Chapter 12, G Chapter 8.1-3

Week 10

Regression with Panel Data Panel data Fixed effects regression Regression with time fixed effects The fixed effects regression assumption and standard errors for fixed effects regression SW Chapter 10, G Chapter 11.1-4

Week 11

Regression with a Binary Dependent Variable Binary dependent variables and the linear probability model Probit and logit regression Estimation and inference in the logit and probit models SW Chapter 11, G Chapter 17.1-3

Week 12

Course revision and exam preparation Review of key statistical and econometric concepts Review of practice exercise for the exam