STATISTICS FOR LEGAL STUDIES

STATISTICS FOR LEGAL STUDIES

Giuseppe Espa, Andrea Mazzitelli

Instructional goals

The course intends to approach students to data analysis, furnishing them the essential instruments to study and describe all phenomena, by using graphical representations and summary measures. A brief monographic part of the course intends to furnish some fundamental notions about probability and inferential statistic. For some proposed arguments it will be show applications on real data by using the software Excel.

Intended learning outcomes

Knowledge and understanding: The student - by participating in the lectures and practical activities of the course - will acquire the basic statistical knowledge necessary to analyse legal, economic, and business data. Specifically, topics related to descriptive statistics, probability, and statistical inference will be addressed. The presence of exercises during the course will allow to give an empirical vision to the statistical methodologies. Applying knowledge and understanding: The student - by acquiring appropriate tools and methods - will be able to develop critical skills in empirical analysis, through the application of statistical techniques to the study of real phenomena. The carrying out of homework will allow to verify the skills acquired by the students. Making judgements: The student, through the use of the methodologies acquired during the course, will be able to collect, process, analyse, and interpret statistical data, acquiring the ability to independently evaluate such data also with reference to concrete situations. Communication skills: The student will be able to communicate to other people, with appropriate terminology, information and evaluations related to statistical analyses, including those of legal typology. Learning skills: The knowledge acquired during the course will allow the student to autonomously understand and interpret statistical analyses. The student will develop a solid knowledge of the fundamental aspects of basic statistics that will allow him to continue to deepen the topics addressed independently, acquiring a working method useful for continuous training in his own working context

Course Contents

Introduction to statistical methodology. Nature and measure of statistical features. Frequency distributions. Graphical representations. Distribution summary: position measures, variability and shape. Contingency tables and indipendency between characters. Correlation. Basic concepts about probability. Indipendency. Random variables. Essentials on sampling and sampling distributions. Essentials on inferential statistics, with particular reference to estimation problems on a population.

Reference Books

Handbook: A. Agresti, C. Franklin (2016) Statistica – l’arte e la scienza d’imparare dai dati, Pearson Italia, Milano (a cura di G. Espa, R. Micciolo, D. Giuliani, M.M. Dickson). G. Espa, R. Micciolo (2008) Problemi ed Esperimenti di Statistica con R, Apogeo, Milano. G. Espa, R. Micciolo (2012) Analisi esplorativa dei dati con R, Apogeo, Milano Suggested and supplementary lectures: M. Piattelli Palmarini (1995) L’illusione di sapere, Oscar Mondadori, Saggi, Milano. G. Gigerenzer (2003) Quando i numeri ingannano, Raffaello Cortina Editore, Milano. T. Boeri (2005) Preface of book by Levitt S.D., Dubner S.J. (2005) Freakonomics – il calcolo dell’incalcolabile, Sperling & Kupfer Editori, Milano, pp. IX–XIV. N. Silver (2013) Il Segnale e il Rumore. Arte e Scienza della Previsione, Fandango Libri, Milano.

Teaching Methods

Lectures with the assistance of computer presentations used during the lessons. All presentations will be available for students since the first lessons on web page of the course. On the same web page, it will be available all the course materials relative to exercise lessons: exercises text and real data-sets for case study analysis, with the assistance of the software Excel.

Assessment Method

The verification of the learning outcomes will be carried out through a written exam. This will cover the whole program of the course, both in its theoretical and practical aspects. The written test will be composed of multiple-choice questions and open questions. The grade is expressed in thirtieths. The final evaluation is made by adding the scores obtained, on the basis of the answers given to the questions of the test. The failure to achieve at least the score of 18/30 will result in failure to pass the exam. Correct answers to all multiple-choice questions and an excellent level of preparation in all open questions will result in a score of 30/30 cum laude.

Thesis assignment criteria

None

Week 1

Session 1 Why Statistics? Sampling Chapter 1 of Handbook: pages 1–16 Variables. Different types of data Chapter 1 of Handbook: pages 19–38

Week 2

Graphical summaries of data Chapter 2 of Handbook: pages 19-38

Week 3

Session 3 Describing the center: the mean and the median Chapter 2 of Handbook: pages 38-46

Week 4

Session 4 Measuring the variability of quantitative data. Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) Chapter 2 of Handbook: pages 46-69

Week 5

Session 5 Case studies: Exercise 1 Case studies: Exercise 2 Lecture notes edited by the professor and the lecturer

Week 6

Session 6 Bivariate distributions: tables and graphics Association: contingency, correlation and regression Chapter 3 of Handbook: pages 81-101 Chapter 3 of Handbook: pages 120-128

Week 7

Session 7 Statistical inference: sampling methods Exercise on bivariate distributions Chapter 4 of Handbook: pages 143-176; pages 180-181

Week 8

Session 8 Probability in our daily lives Applying the probability rules Chapter 5 of Handbook: pages 187-205

Week 9

Session 9 Conditional probability: the probability of A given B Exercise on conditional probability Chapter 5 of Handbook: pages 206-227

Week 10

Session 10 Discrete random variables Continuous random variables Chapter 6 of Handbook: pages 237-268 Chapter 7 of Handbook: pages 286-290

Week 11

Session 11 Statistical inference (part I): sampling methods and sampling distributions Practicing the basics Chapter 7 of Handbook: pages 274-286; pages 290-294

Week 12

Session 12 Statistical inference (part II): point and interval estimates Statistical inference (part II): significance tests about hypotheses Chapter 7 of Handbook: pages 294-296 Chapter 8 of Handbook: pages 301-331 Chapter 9 of Handbook: pages 351-405