SCENARI MACROECONOMICI INTERNAZIONALI

SCENARI MACROECONOMICI INTERNAZIONALI

Mauro Visaggio

Instructional goals

The course aims to develop the tools and issues addressed during a basic Macroeconomics course in an international perspective.

Intended learning outcomes

The course aims to provide the basic theoretical tools - through the use of a simplified language from the analytical point of view - in order to examine some historical case studies that allow future managers to understand, deal with, and possibly solve , any future international financial crises. In conclusion, the course foresees a combination between the unavoidable theoretical bases and the empirical knowledge constituted by the different historical case studies examined.

Course Contents

The course is divided into six topics. The first topic presents, in the first part, the basic notions of macroeconomics in an open economy: the main accounting identities in an open economy; nominal exchange rate and real exchange rate; the condition of uncovered parity of interest rates; the foreign exchange market equilibrium; nominal interest rate and real interest rate; the determination of the risk premium on national government bonds and, finally, the Marshall-Lerner conditions. The second part of the first theme presents: the closed extended IS-LM model; the closed extended IS-LM-PC model; the open extended IS-LM-PC model. As part of the first theme, the case study (CS1) of the Covid-19 crisis and the contrasting macroeconomic policies implemented by the FED and the ECB are presented. In the second topic, through the study of the interaction between real and financial markets in an open economy, the theoretical foundations are laid for the examination and the implications of international openness in the implementation of contrast economic policies in order to achieve the full employment. The first part of the second topic examines the interaction of financial and real markets in a flexible exchange rate regime with particular emphasis on macroeconomic stabilization policies; the second part of the second topic examines the interaction of financial and real markets in a regime of fixed exchange rates. The second theme presents two case studies: the case study (CS2) of the twenty years lost in Japan and the case study (CS3) of the 1992 currency crisis in Italy. The third topic, after examining the role of financial institutions, addresses the theoretical aspects behind the origin of financial crises and the different stages through which the latter evolve. The third theme presents two case studies: the case study (CS4) of the Great Depression of the 1930s and the case study (CS5) of the 2007 financial crisis. The fourth topic deals with the role of Central Banks and, in particular, the differences between the Fed and the ECB with respect to the institutional set-up and the choice of objectives and tools. The theoretical foundations allow us to tackle two case studies: the case study (CS6) of the Inflation Targeting regime which allows to reconcile the independence of the Central Bank with the control of democratically elected governments over the Central Bank itself; the case study (CS7) of the comparison between the Fed and the ECB in the implementation of unconventional monetary policies following the 2008 financial crisis. The fifth topic deals with the question of the unsustainability of public debt and the problems associated with it following the financial crises and the adhesion to an optimal area with attention to the sovereign debt crisis following the 2008 financial crisis. As part of this topic, the case study (CS8) on the growth of public debt in Italy since the 1960s is presented. The sixth topic - starting from the theory of optimal areas - compares the advantages and disadvantages of joining the European Monetary Union by examining the growing problems emerging within the latter.

Reference Books

Blanchard O., Amighini A. and F. Giavazzi, [BAG], (2018), “Macroeconomics. An European perspective", sixth edition, Il Mulino. "International Managerial Macroeconomics", [MIM], (2019), M. Visaggio, Pearson-Text-Builder. Chapters from Krugman P., Obstfeld M. and M. Melitz (International Economics 2, International Monetary Economics (2019) and Mishkin F., Eakins S. and E. Beccalli, (2019), Financial Institutions and Markets. Lecture notes by the teacher on the various topics covered.

Teaching Methods

Lectures, exercises and discussion of the case studies examined.

Assessment Method

Written exam (there is no oral exam). The structure of the written test is structured as follows: eight multiple choice questions (1 point correct answer; 0 points no answer; -0.25 point in case of wrong answer). three open questions (max. 8 points).

Thesis assignment criteria

The supervision of the thesis is subject to passing the exam. There is no restriction on the mark obtained in the exam.

Does the syllabus cover sustainability topics?

No

Week 1 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

TOPIC 1. BASIC CONCEPTS OF MACROECONOMICS Review of the basic notions of macroeconomics in open economics and presentation of the extended closed IS-LM models, the closed and open IS-LM-AS model. Case study (CS1) of the Covid-19 crisis.

Week 2 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

See week 1.

Week 3 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

TOPIC 2. INTERACTION BETWEEN FINANCIAL AND REAL MARKETS IN AN INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT First part. The interaction between financial and real markets in a flexible exchange rate regime with perfect substitutability of financial assets. The AA-DD model: the determination of macroeconomic balance and the role and effectiveness of stabilization policies in the two exchange rate regimes. Second part. The interaction between financial and real markets in a fixed exchange rate regime with perfect substitutability of financial assets. The consequences of perfect capital mobility: balance of payments crisis and capital flight; emergence of the "irreconcilable triad" of economic policy. Finally, the case of the imperfect substitutability of financial assets and the risk premium is examined. Case study (CS2) of the twenty years lost in Japan and the case study (CS3) of the 1992 currency crisis in Italy.

Week 4 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

See week 3.

Week 5 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

TOPIC 3. ROLE OF THE FINANCIAL SYSTEMS AND EXPLANATION OF THE REASON FOR WHICH FINANCIAL CRISES ARE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE FALLS IN THE REAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY First part. Role of financial institutions: the solution to the agency's theory problem (i.e., moral hazard and adverse selection). Second part. Dynamics of financial crises. The three phases of the evolution of the financial crises. Case study (CS4) of the Great Depression of the 1930s and case study (CS5) of the 2007 financial crisis.

Week 6 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

See fifth week 5.

Week 7 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

TOPIC 4. STRUCTURE, OBJECTIVES AND INSTRUMENTS OF CENTRAL BANKS: FED VERSUS ECB. First part. Central Banks. Changes in the functions and structures of the CBs: the ECB and the Fed. Differences between the ECB and the Fed. Central Banks and independence. Second part. Monetary policy management: tools and objectives Case study (CS6) of the Inflation Targeting regime; case study (CS7) on the comparison of the Fed with the ECB in the implementation of unconventional monetary policies following the 2008 financial crisis.

Week 8 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

See week 7.

Week 9 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

TOPIC 6. PUBLIC DEBT AND SOVEREIGN DEBT CRISIS Theoretical bases. Arithmetic of the public sector budget constraint and unsustainability of public debt. The role of the interest rate, the inflation rate and the growth rate of the economy with respect to the unsustainability of public debt. The effects of the latter on business investment and the onset of the sovereign debt crisis starting in 2010. Case study (CS8) on the origin and growth of public debt in Italy from 1960 to today.

Week 10 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

See week 9.

Week 11 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

TOPIC 6. MONETARY UNION: COSTS AND BENEFITS OF A MONETARY UNION Theoretical bases. The theory of optimal areas. Costs and benefits of adopting the euro: a comparison. The factors behind the euro crisis.

Week 12 Contenuto sessioni on line e on campus

See week 10.